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Yen slides, stocks steady ahead of US inflation data



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Updates at 0820 GMT

By Huw Jones

LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) -Global stocks on Friday were poised to end the first half on a strong note, with investors looking to key U.S. inflation data for clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the yen's slide to a 38-year low fuelled expectations over intervention by the Japanese authorities to stem the weakness.

Oil LCOc1 was headed for a third straight weekly jump.

On the last trading day of the first half of the year, stocks hovered near recent record highs. The AI boom on Wall Street has helped the S&P 500 blue chip index rocket nearly 15% over the past six months, with hefty gains in Europe and Asia, too, as markets put aside concerns over electoral uncertainty.

There was a muted response from the dollar and U.S. stock index futures to the U.S. presidential debate that saw Democrat President Joe Biden stumble at times in a head-to-head with his Republican rival Donald Trump ahead of the November election.

"We see a potential Trump administration as more positive for the dollar both via looser fiscal policy and also via a more aggressive trade/tariff environment," analysts at ING bank said after the debate.

However, worries about the outcome of the French parliamentary elections that start on Sunday pushed the risk premium on French government bonds over German bonds to its widest since the euro zone debt crisis in 2012.

The political uncertainty in France put the euro EUR=EBS on track for its biggest monthly fall since January.

The MSCI All Country Stock Index .MIWD00000PUS was slightly firmer at 804.27 points, near its lifetime high of 807.17 on June 20, and up about 10.5% for the year.

In Europe, the STOXX index .STOXX of 600 companies gained 0.11% to 513 points, helping to cement its 7% gain for the year.

"In the first half we've seen some really good performance from the equity market, and the question we are asking ourselves is where is the performance going to come from in the second half," said Eren Osman, wealth management director at Arbuthnot Latham.

The tech majors and AI boom should continue to drive stocks into the second half, he said.

"What we see is just a very clear narrative that the investment in that space is not going to show down anytime in the near term, so to bet against that as a theme and likely strong equity market performance is probably not a wise move," Osman said.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, is due at 1230 GMT, before the opening bell on Wall Street. If its annual growth slowed to 2.6% in May, as economists expect, it may open the way to cuts later this year.

Traders are now pricing in a 64% chance of a first Fed cut in September, up from 50% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though analysts said those expectations could be derailed if Friday's core PCE figures surprise to the upside.

S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 both ticked higher.



ASIAN WINNING STREAK

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.2% and was on track to gain more than 3% for the month, its best performance since February.

Chinese markets, meanwhile, reversed early losses to trade higher, with China's benchmark CSI300 .CSI300 last up 0.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index .HSI 0.56% higher.

In currency markets, the dollar was on the front foot and was eyeing a monthly gain of nearly 1.4% against a basket of currencies =USD.

The yen JPY=EBS tumbled to a trough of 161.27 per dollar, its weakest since 1986, and was last trading at 160.91.

The Japanese currency has fallen some 2.3% this month and more than 12% for the year against a resilient dollar, as it continues to be hammered by stark interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan.

The latest decline in the Japanese currency has kept investors on edge, watching for possible intervention from Tokyo. Japanese authorities spent 9.79 trillion yen ($60.94 billion) at the end of April and in early May to push the yen up 5% from its 34-year low of 160.245 then.

The yen's weakness has, meanwhile, been a boon for the Nikkei .N225, which last rose 0.6%. It was eyeing a monthly gain of about 3%.

Also on Friday, Japan's government appointed financial regulation expert Atsushi Mimura as its top currency diplomat, replacing Masato Kanda who battled sharp yen declines this year with the biggest currency intervention on record.

In commodity markets, gold XAU= was a touch firmer at$2,328 an ounce. GOL/

Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 rose 0.4% to $86.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 gained 0.6% to $82.23 per barrel.


World FX rates YTD http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

Global asset performance http://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgn

Asian stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

On a tear https://tmsnrt.rs/4cjWmKq


Reporting by Huw Jones in London, additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Stella Qiu in Sydney; Editing by Kim Coghill and Jacquelne Wong

To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: 0#.INDEXA
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