US recap: Dollar rises with US yields on dwindling Fed cut hopes
AUD/USD-US pricing data helps to erase gains
Sterling eyes 2024 low 1.2406, aided by less dovish Fed speakers, upbeat US data
April 18 (Reuters) -The dollar index rose 0.18% after hawkish Philly Fed data and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams reinforced the view rate cuts are off the table unless the U.S. disinflation trend resumes, and though not his baseline forecast, the Fed would hike if data called for it.
Treasury yields rebounded 5-6bp from 2 to 10-year tenors. They had fallen back from Tuesday's new 2024 highs that came in response far above forecast U.S. retail sales and Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson then affirming rate cuts would be delayed and were even more data-dependent.
Static, yet still quite low jobless claims, and weaker-than-forecast leading indicators and existing home sales had little impact on markets. Futures now price in a first Fed rate cut in either September or at the Nov. 7 meeting, two days after the U.S. election. And total 2024 cuts of just 39bp are being priced in.
EUR/USD fell 0.26%, as ECB policymakers largely stuck to view that rate cuts could begin by June and that inflation was likely to retreat further. That as the Bundesbank noted the German economy was doing a bit better, though "there is still no evidence of sustained improvement." The euro zone current account surplus fell in February on weaker trade.
EUR/USD's rebound from Tuesday's low by 1.0600 looks like a correction, not the start of a trend reversal.
USD/JPY rose 0.14%, more than reversing earlier 153.96 lows as Treasury-JGB yields spreads rose on the Philly Fed and dwindling Fed rate cut expectations.
Prices still face major resistance by 155 and the potential threat of BoJ intervention to support the yen. That risk gained some credibility due to Wednesday's U.S., Japan and South Korea finance ministers' agreement to "consult closely" on FX markets.
However, unless U.S. data cool off, an intervention-driven USD/JPY drop would be viewed as a buying opportunity, because the BoJ is seen moving very gradually with any further rate hikes that could narrow very attractive Treasury-JGB yield spreads.
Friday's Japan CPI data is unlikely to change that view, unless the core inflation rate rises for a second month instead falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in February as forecast.
Somewhat ironically, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, core PCE due out on April 26, was also at 2.8% in February, though U.S. core CPI inflation held steady for a second month at 3.8%.
Sterling fell 0.11%, led by falling Gilts-Treasury yields spreads, after correcting a small slice of its mid-April plunge. The BoE is now seen a bit more likely to cut rates in Q3 than the Fed, with swaps pricing in 43bp of cuts by year-end. That amid conflicting dovish and hawkish views from Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday and policymaker Megan Greene on Thursday.
UK March retail sales are due out Friday and seen recovering from weak February results.
Risk-off flows into the dollar could rise again as U.S. stocks continue to April's retreat and pre-weekend geopolitical anxiety may rise.
For more click on FXBUZ
Editing by Burton Frierson
Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.