US natgas slips to one-week low on oversupply of fuel in storage

Reuters

US natgas slips to one-week low on oversupply of fuel in storage

2024 8월 16, 오후 7:01 GMT

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Adds latest prices

Aug 16 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 3% to a one-week low on Friday on forecasts for less hot weather than previously expected and oversupply of gas in storage, even though a federal weekly report showed a surprise draw in inventories this week.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 7.4 cents, or about 3.4%, to settle at $2.123 per million British thermal units.

"Prices are mainly down because of the high levels of gas in storage and high production volumes. Lowered demand from LNG maintenance has also allowed storage to stay so high," said Ryan Parsons, an analyst at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates.

However, "we are bullish on market prices through the end of 2024," Parsons added.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday said utilities drew 6 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories during the week ended Aug. 9, decreasing stockpiles to 3.264 trillion cubic feet (tcf). However, that was still above 7.2% the same week a year ago and 12.5% above the five-year average for the week.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 223 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower than the 227 CDDs estimated on Thursday. The normal for this time of year is 186 CDDs.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to rise from 104.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106.5 bcfd next week.

LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. has fallen to an average of 102.4 bcfd so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

"This market is sending off some bearish vibes given its inability to advance off of a seemingly bullish EIA report that offered a highly unusual 6 bcf storage withdrawal for early August," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

"The decline reduced the surplus by almost 50 bcf to around 375 bcf and we expect a further reduction in the supply overhang during the next couple of months as the injection cycle winds down"

Meanwhile, Dutch and British gas wholesale prices were mixed on Friday morning as strong storage inventories helped ease fears of potential supply disruptions due to the war between Russia and Ukraine as well as tensions in the Middle East.NG/EU

	Week ended Aug 16 forecast	Week ended Aug 9 Actual	Year ago Aug 2	Five-year average Aug 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+33	-6	+25	+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,297	3,264	2,022	2,846
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	12.5%	13.0%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2023	Five-Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.16	2.18	2.65	2.66	3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	12.64	12.70	11.21	13.04	14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	14.34	12.66	12.43	14.39	14.31


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	5	5	3	5	6
U.S. GFS CDDs	223	227	211	186	178
U.S. GFS TDDs-	228	232	214	191	184

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week		Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	101.8	101.8	102.2		96.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.7	7.6	7.6		7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
Total U.S. Supply	109.5	109.4	109.8		103.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.6	1.6	1.6		2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.3	7.2	7.2		6.1
U.S. LNG Exports	12.7	12.7	12.8		7.7
U.S. Commercial	4.5	4.5	4.6		4.5
U.S. Residential	3.7	3.8	3.8		3.4
U.S. Power Plant	43.9	45.3	47.1		43.0
U.S. Industrial	21.8	21.9	22.0		21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.0	5.0	5.0		5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.2	2.3		2.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.1
Total U.S. Consumption	81.2	82.9	84.8		80.0
Total U.S. Demand	102.8	104.4	106.5		96.1

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam	Current Day % of Normal Forecast	Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual	2021 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	74	74	83	107	81
Jan-Jul	76	76	77	102	79
Oct-Sep	77	78	76	103	81


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 16	Week ended Aug 9	2023	2022	2021
Wind	8	7	10	11	10
Solar	6	5	4	3	3
Hydro	6	6	6	6	7
Other	1	1	2	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	45	46	41	38	37
Coal	17	18	17	21	23
Nuclear	18	17	19	19	20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.19	2.18
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.74	1.59
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.73	2.74
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.64	1.55
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	1.85	1.83
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.78	1.72
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	1.97	1.97
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.21	0.46
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.79	0.67

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL	38.50	39.25
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL	42.50	37.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL	55.00	47.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL	39.25	34.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL	36.00	31.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL	34.75	30.50

Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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