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US natgas rises more than 2% on smaller-than-expected storage build



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Updates after EIA report, adds comments

Sept 12 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build last week, whiletraders assessed the impacton supply after oil and gas producers cut output due to Hurricane Francine.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 6.4 cents, or about 2.8%, to$2.335 permillion British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 10:41 a.m. EDT (1341 GMT).

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 6.

That was lower than the 48-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 50 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year average (2019-2023) increase of 67 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

Even though storage builds have been smaller than average in recent weeks, the amount of gas in storage is still around 10% higher than usual for this time of year.

"This market is holding steady thus far as it attempts to predict the impact of Hurricane Francine on lost natural gas production where estimates vary widely to as high as 50%," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

"However, the lost supply will likely prove modest within the overall US gas balances within this age of shale. It also appears that the storm has evaded key LNG export infrastructure in providing a supportive influence to the market," Ritterbusch said.

Francine, which has been downgraded to a tropical depression, barreled into southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi and Alabama on Thursday, pounding the region with heavy rains and gusty winds while threatening the Gulf Coast with dangerous flooding and widespread power outages.

The amount of natural gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants was on track to slide further on Thursday with energy companies reducing feedgas to plants because of the storm, according to data from financial firm LSEG.

More than 75% of U.S. gas production comes from big inland shale basins like Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio and the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Analystssaid hurricanes were more likely to reduce gas prices by cutting demand through power outages and knocking LNG export plants out of service.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slidto an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 99.6 bcfd this week to 100.1 bcfd next week.

Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall marginally from 109.8 bcfd this week to 109.4 bcfd next week.

Week ended Sep 6 Forecast

Week ended Aug 30 Actual

Year ago Sep 6

Five-year average

Sep 6


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+48

+13

+50

+67


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,396

3,347

3,189

3,091


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

9.9%

10.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.27

2.22

2.70

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.30

11.52

11.44

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.74

13.79

13.92

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

14

14

6

12

14

U.S. GFS CDDs

149

148

176

151

142

U.S. GFS TDDs

163

162

182

163

156

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.7

101.9

101.8

103.5

96.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.2

8.0

7.6

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

110.9

109.8

109.4

N/A

103.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.9

2.0

2.0

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.3

7.2

7.2

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

13.1

12.9

12.4

12.1

8.2

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

U.S. Residential

3.6

4.1

4.1

3.8

3.9

U.S. Power Plant

43.2

39.4

40.6

42.1

36.0

U.S. Industrial

21.8

21.9

21.8

21.5

21.7

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

80.5

77.5

78.6

79.4

80.0

Total U.S. Demand

102.9

99.6

100.1

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

74

75

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

78

78

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Sep 13

Week ended Sep 6

2023

2022

2021

Wind

8

6

10

11

10

Solar

6

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

46

48

41

38

37

Coal

15

16

17

21

23

Nuclear

19

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.13

2.03


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.61

1.48


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.23

2.55


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.64

1.47


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.80

1.80


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.98

1.95


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.76

1.95


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-0.53

-0.23




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.60

0.52



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

36.25

33.50



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

48.25

38.50



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

24.25

24.25


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

31.33

43.00




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

19.50

36.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

16.00

38.75




Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Paul Simao

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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