US natgas prices slip more than 2% ahead of storage report

Reuters

US natgas prices slip more than 2% ahead of storage report

2024 8월 8, 오후 1:59 GMT

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By Brijesh Patel

Aug 8 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 2% on Thursday on forecasts for less hotter weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously projected, ahead of a federal report expected to show last week's build was below normal.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 5.3 cents, or about 2.5%, to $2.06 per million British thermal units at 9:47 a.m. EDT (1337 GMT).

"The market has been kind of drifting lower over the past month or so because the lack of any kind of sustained significant hot weather across the country," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.

"From a fundamental perspective you've got a high level of inventory which is bearish on the market and but the injections are going in a weekly basis on the low side so that could be considered kind of bullish."

Financial firm LSEG estimated 214 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower from 220 CDDs estimated on Wednesday. The normal for this time of year is 189 CDDs.

Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

Analysts forecast U.S. utilities likely added 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 2. That compared with an injection of 25 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 38 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

If correct, that will leave gas stocks about 15% above normal for this time of year.

LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 103.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Major U.S. natural gas producers are preparing to further curtail production in the second half of 2024, after prices sank nearly 40% over the past two months.

Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise to 109.7 bcfd this week from 105.8 bcfd last week, before declining to 104.1 bcfd next week.

Meanwhile, Dutch wholesale gas prices mostly edged higher on Thursday morning as continued concern over possible disruption to Russian supply via Ukraine provided support despite reduced demand from power plants owing to strong wind power output. NG/EU

	Week ended Aug 2 Forecast	Week ended July 26 Actual	Year ago Aug 2	Five-year average Aug 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+26	+18	+25	+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,275	3,249	2,022	2,846
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	15.1%	15.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2023	Five-Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1		2.11	2.65	2.66	3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	12.21	12.35	11.21	13.04	14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	12.53	12.45	12.43	14.39	14.31


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	8	7	1	2	4
U.S. GFS CDDs	214	220	224	196	189
U.S. GFS TDDs	222	227	225	198	193

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	102.5	103.0	103.1	102.3	96.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.7	8.0	7.8	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	110.3	110.9	110.9	N/A	103.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.7	1.6	1.6	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.3	7.0	7.2	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Exports	11.8	12.9	12.8	12.6	7.7
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.5	4.4	4.5
U.S. Residential	3.5	3.7	3.8	3.5	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	47.9	50.7	44.9	48.3	43.0
U.S. Industrial	21.7	21.9	21.8	21.3	21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.0	5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.2	2.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Consumption	84.9	88.2	82.5	84.8	80.0
Total U.S. Demand	105.8	109.7	104.1	N/A	96.1

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam	Current Day % of Normal Forecast	Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual	2021 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	74	74	83	107	81
Jan-Jul	76	76	77	102	79
Oct-Sep	77	78	76	103	81


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 9	Week ended Aug 2	2023	2022	2021
Wind	5	8	10	11	10
Solar	5	5	4	3	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	7
Other	1	1	2	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	48	46	41	38	37
Coal	19	17	17	21	23
Nuclear	16	16	19	19	20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	1.96	1.83
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.35	1.37
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.05	3.28
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.35	1.28
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	1.75	1.73
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.50	1.43
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.33	2.59
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.15	1.05
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.75	0.64

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL	32.75	29.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL	39.25	36.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL	34.75	75.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL	76.75	79.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL	54.00	80.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL	40.00	48.25

Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; editing by David Evans

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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