US natgas prices hit two-week high on hot weather outlook, higher demand forecasts

Reuters

US natgas prices hit two-week high on hot weather outlook, higher demand forecasts

2024 8월 9, 오후 7:08 GMT

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Adds latest prices

By Anushree Ashish Mukherjee

Aug 9 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures touched an over two-week peak on Friday, aided by forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand for the next week.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.6 cents, or about 0.8%, to settle at $2.14 per million British thermal units.

The contract was up about 9% so far this week, its biggest weekly gain since June 7.

Natural gas is getting boosted by a return of some warm weather and the report was fairly supportive, "so production restraint talk along with expected better demand has given the market a little bit of support from these historically low prices," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities added 21 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 2.

LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 102.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

"Fundamentally, this market is currently riding a supportive wave driven by warmer temperature expectations during the next couple of weeks," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to fall to 104.0 bcfd this week from 109.9 bcfd last week, before rising to 105.1 bcfd next week.

Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remained at their highest level in over seven months, tracking European gains amid concerns over supply disruption.

Meanwhile, Dutch wholesale gas briefly traded at the highest level this year so far on Friday morning but later eased as Russian gas continued to flow via Ukraine despite ongoing fights near a key transit point in Russia.NG/EU

	Week ended Aug 9 forecasts	Week ended Aug 2 Actual	Year ago Aug 2	Five-year average Aug 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+19	+21	+25	+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,289	3,270	2,022	2,846
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	13.8%	14.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2023	Five-Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.18	-	2.65	2.66	3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	12.94	12.21	11.21	13.04	14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	12.57	12.53	12.43	14.39	14.31


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	-	8	1	3	4
U.S. GFS CDDs	-	214	226	196	189
U.S. GFS TDDs-	-	222	227	199	193

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	103.0	102.2	102.6	102.3	96.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.0	7.7	7.7	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	111.0	109.9	110.3	N/A	103.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.6	1.6	1.6	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.1	7.2	7.2	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Exports	12.9	12.7	12.8	12.6	7.7
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.5	4.4	4.4	4.5
U.S. Residential	3.7	3.9	3.8	3.5	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	50.8	44.9	46.1	48.3	43.0
U.S. Industrial	21.9	21.8	21.8	21.3	21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.0	5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Consumption	88.3	82.5	83.5	84.8	80.0
Total U.S. Demand	109.9	104.0	105.1	N/A	96.1

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam	Current Day % of Normal Forecast	Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual	2021 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	74	74	83	107	81
Jan-Jul	76	76	77	102	79
Oct-Sep	78	78	76	103	81


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 9	Week ended Aug 2	2023	2022	2021
Wind	7	6	10	11	10
Solar	5	5	4	3	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	7
Other	1	1	2	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	48	48	41	38	37
Coal	19	18	17	21	23
Nuclear	15	16	19	19	20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	1.85	1.96
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.38	1.35
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.85	3.05
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.28	1.35
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	1.70	1.75
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.54	1.50
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.05	2.33
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.44	0.15
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.81	0.75

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL	35.75	32.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL	38.00	39.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL	33.25	34.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL	54.50	76.75
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL	38.50	54.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL	38.25	40.00

Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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