US natgas prices ease to fresh 12-week low on rising output
By Scott DiSavino
July 29 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Monday to a fresh 12-week low as producers keep pulling more gas out of the ground.
That small price decline came despite forecasts of record-breaking heat later this week, that could boost the amount of gas power generators burn to an all-time high.
At the same time, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants hit a seven-week high over the weekend with the return of all three liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG in Texas, after it shut for Hurricane Beryl in early July.
Analysts said the combination of higher gas use by power generators and LNG export plants could cause utilities to take the unusual step of pulling gas out of storage during a week in August for the first time since 2006.
There was currently about 17% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Storage builds have been mostly smaller than usual in recent weeks, because several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
Higher prices in April and May, however, prompted some drillers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to boost output.
But with prices down about 23% so far in July, some analysts think producers could reduce drilling activities again.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.6 cents, or 0.8%, to $1.990 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 9:45 a.m. EDT (1345 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since May 1 for a second day in a row.
That also put the front-month down for a fifth day and kept it in oversold territory for a second day in a row.
The September contract NGU24, which will soon be the front-month, held steady at around $2.04 per mmBtu, allowing its premium over August NGQ24-U24 to rise to a record high for a second day.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.4 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the Lower 48 states will average 83.5 degrees Fahrenheit (28.6 Celsius) on Aug. 1 and 83.9 F on Aug. 2, according to data from LSEG.
That would top the current record high average temperature of 83.0 F set on July 20, 2022, when power demand peaked at an all-time high of 742,600 megawatts, according to LSEG and federal energy data.
To keep air conditioners humming during that record heat, LSEG forecast power generators would burn about 54.8 bcfd of gas on Aug. 2, which would top the current all-time high of 54.1 bcfd reached on July 9 when generators had to burn more gas due to a lack of wind power.
But the amount of power generated by wind was on track to rise from 4% last week to around 10% this week.
With more heat coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 105.6 bcfd this week to 111.7 bcfd next week.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas rose to a preliminary seven-week high of 13.3 bcfd on Sunday with the return of the 2.1-bcfd Freeport.
Week ended July 26 Forecast | Week ended July 19 Actual | Year ago July 26 | Five-year average July 26 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +39 | +22 | +15 | +33 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,270 | 3,231 | 2,997 | 2,808 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 16.5% | 16.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.02 | 2.04 | 2.64 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.37 | 10.14 | 9.58 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.08 | 12.24 | 11.44 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 262 | 256 | 229 | 207 | 199 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 259 | 259 | 230 | 209 | 204 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.5 | 102.6 | 102.5 | 102.3 | 95.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.3 | 110.5 | 110.0 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.8 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 8.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 47.9 | 46.6 | 52.5 | 48.3 | 43.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 84.9 | 83.7 | 89.8 | 84.8 | 79.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.8 | 105.6 | 111.7 | N/A | 96.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 2 | Week ended Jul 26 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 10 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 48 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 15 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.98 | 2.00 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.34 | 1.39 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.29 | 3.49 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.23 | 1.27 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.69 | 1.77 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.48 | 1.60 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.53 | 2.87 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.15 | 0.67 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.68 | 0.67 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 31.50 | 32.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 29.75 | 36.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 22.00 | 26.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 40.50 | 66.25 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 34.00 | 68.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 32.75 | 50.25 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Holmes
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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