US economy regains momentum in second quarter; price pressures ebbing
Adds details from report, analyst comments
Second-quarter GDP increases at a 2.8% rate
Consumer, business spending, inventories add to GDP
Trade, residential investment subtract from growth
Core PCE price index rises at 2.9% rate
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) -The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter amid solid gains in consumer spending and business investment, but inflation pressures subsided, leaving intact expectations of a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Growth last quarter also received a boost from inventory building as well as increased government spending, the Commerce Department's advance report on second-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday showed. The housing market recovery, however, regressed and was a small drag on the economy. The trade deficit widened further, subtracting from GDP growth.
The economy continues to outperform its global peers, despite hefty rate hikes from the U.S. central bank in 2022 and 2023, thanks to a resilient labor market.
"Economic growth is solid, not too hot and not too cold," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "Inflation looks to be going the Fed's way and an easing of monetary restraint with an interest rate cut is likely in September."
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.0% rate. Estimates ranged from a 1.1% rate to a 3.4% pace. The economy grew at a 1.4% rate in the first quarter.
U.S. central bank officials regard a 1.8% pace as the non-inflationary growth rate. Still, growth was slower than the 4.2% pace logged in the second half of last year.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, increased at around a 2.3% rate after slowing to a 1.5% pace in the January-March quarter. Spending was driven by increased outlays on services like healthcare, housing and utilities as well as recreation.
Consumers also boosted outlays on goods, including motor vehicles and parts, recreational goods and vehicles, furnishings and durable household equipment as well as energy products.
Business investment picked up as spending on equipment surged at an 11.6% rate after rising at only a 1.6% pace in the first quarter. Businesses also accumulated more inventory, which increased at a $71.3 billion rate after rising at a $28.6 billion pace in the prior quarter.
SOLID DOMESTIC DEMAND
Even discounting inventories, growth was solid last quarter, with domestic demand rising at a 2.6% pace. The increase in final sales to private domestic purchasers matched the gain in the January-March quarter.
The rise in GDP growth bodes well for an acceleration in productivity, which would slow the pace of increase in labor costs and ultimately price pressures.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased at a 2.9% rate after surging at a 3.7% pace in the first quarter, welcome news for U.S. central bank officials ahead of their two-day policy meeting next week.
The so-called core PCE price index is one of the inflation measures tracked by the Fed for its 2% target. The government's broadest gauge of prices in the economy, the gross domestic purchases price index, rose at 2.3% pace after jumping at a 3.1% rate in the January-March quarter.
The Fed has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range for the past year. It has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points since 2022. Financial markets expect three rate cuts this year, starting in September.
Despite the solid economic growth pace, the outlook for the second half of the year is hazy. The labor market is slowing, which will impact wage gains.
The saving rate is well below its pre-pandemic average and economists estimate that the bulk of the Fed's rate hikes is still to be felt. State and local government revenues are also slowing, which could erode spending.
There are also worries about new tariffs, which could see businesses front-loading imports if former President Donald Trump is returned to the White House in November's presidential election.
Nonetheless, a recession is not expected, with monetary policy easing anticipated this year.
US gross domestic product https://reut.rs/4c0cbEU
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
