RBNZ may opt for dovish hold but a cut won't surprise

Reuters

RBNZ may opt for dovish hold but a cut won't surprise

2024 8월 13 일, 오전 2:59 GMT

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Aug 13 (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave its official cash rate (OCR) at5.5% on Wednesday while paving the way for an easing in October but a cut wouldnot surprise given softening inflation, slowing growth and the central bank's propensity to up-end expectations.

Indeed, traders are clamouring for a cut and swaps imply a 75%probability of a 25 basis-pointreduction in the OCR Wednesdayand 85 bps of cuts by year-end 0#RBNZWATCH.Economists are less certain, with a majority - about 60% polled by Reuters - expecting no change.

Inflation slowed to a three-year low of 3.3% in the second quarter, moving closer to the RBNZ's 1-3% target band. A central bank survey last weekalso showed inflation expectations falling to three-year lows in Q3. But stickiness in non-tradeable inflation is likely to prevent an immediate rate cut.

The economy is expected to slow markedly from the first quarter's0.2% growth. Westpac forecasts GDP contractions of0.6% in Q2 and 0.2% in Q3. Rising unemployment and annual wage growth at a two-year low also support an easing.

While the RBNZ soundedmore dovish than markets expected at its July meeting, its last OCR projections in Mayindicated thatrate cuts were unlikely until far into 2025. It is unclear whether the subsequent datais bad enough to warrant a cut in August, and the bank may insteadopt for dovish guidance by lowering its OCR forecasts significantly.

NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6035-38, followed by 0.6080-85. Supports are at 0.5964-68, 0.5942 and 0.5920.

For more click on FXBUZ

NZD: https://tmsnrt.rs/4dHf8vm

NZD: https://tmsnrt.rs/3An2ByY

Reuters poll - Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy rate forecasts: https://tmsnrt.rs/46FYjP3

Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai

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