RBA to hold rates Tuesday but tone down hawkish stance

Reuters

RBA to hold rates Tuesday but tone down hawkish stance

2024 8월 5 일, 오전 3:06 GMT

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Aug 5 (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold interest ratesat 4.35% for a sixth straight meeting on Tuesday, but soft inflation data and the plunge inglobal risk sentiment may prompt it to sound less hawkish.

While the annual pace of Australia's core CPI slowed to 3.9% in Junefrom 4.0%, the lowest since early 2022, it still remains well above the RBA's target; the central bank is henceunlikely to completely abandon its hawkish bias.

But in light of rising global growth concerns with talk of a U.S. recession, China's fragile economy, interest rate cuts by major central banks and the rapid deterioration in risk sentiment, the RBA may consider it prudent to indicate itcan return inflation to its 2%-3% target under current policy settings.

Hence, while maintaining that it remains vigilant to upside risks on inflation, it may refrain from a rate hike debate and may notreiterate that it won't rule anything in or out on policy, which would be a marked departure from language at its previousmeeting. Such an outcome will be construed as dovish.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect rates to remain on hold through the end of this year with a cut foreseen in the first quarter of 2025, but traders now price in a 75% probability of a cut in November 0#RBAWATCH.

AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6570 and 0.6600-05; a test of 0.6465, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its April-July rally, and an extension to 0.6362, the 2024 low, look likely.

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Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Ewen Chew

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