XM은(는) 미국 국적의 시민에게 서비스를 제공하지 않습니다.

Rate cut signals weigh on forint, crown



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Rate cut signals weigh on forint, crown</title></head><body>

WARSAW, July 24 (Reuters) -The forint weakened further on Wednesday after Hungary's central bank cut interest rates and signalled more easing, while the crown also sagged ahead of a Czech policy meeting next week that could see a debate on maintaining a cutting pace.

On Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) delivered its 15th successive rate cut, lowering its base rate by another 25 basis points to 6.75%, in line with a narrow consensus. That brought the total scale of easing to 1,125 bps since May 2023.

NBH deputy governor Barnabas Virag said that one or two further rate cuts expected by economists before the end of 2024 looked realistic. He added that inflation could come in below market expectations in the second half despite somewhat stronger repricing than in the past.

"Yesterday's rate cut is just a confirmation for markets of the current market pricing and will be a trigger for HUF (forint) to weaken," ING analysts said in a note.

By 0923 GMT, the forint EURHUF= was down 0.4% against the euro to 392.05, continuing to retreat from a 1-1/2-month high set on Monday.

ING analysts said that while low summer liquidity could bring surprises, the forint was heading for 394 per euro in the coming days and towards the top end of the 385-400 range which they see it trading within the medium term.

A Budapest-based trader said a poor PMI reading across Europe has caused investor blues and sent the euro lower against the dollar. A firming dollar often signals risk aversion among investors, including towards emerging market currencies.

Meanwhile, the Czech crown EURCZK=, which has been weakening since Monday, hit a five month low before cutting its morning losses and shedding 0.1% to 25.4020 per euro.

The Czech crown is on the defensive after central bank Vice-Governor Jan Frait did not rule out the option of another 50-bp interest rate cut next week despite previous signals the bank would slow its easing pace.

"We believe that debate on a 50-bp cut may be on the table, but we think that in view of more cautious ECB rate cuts..., the CNB will ultimately be more cautious," CSOB analysts said in a note, adding preliminary second-quarter GDP data due just before the rate meeting would provide clearer clues.

In Poland the zloty EURPLN= traded flat at 4.2790 per euro.

Alior Bank analysts noted that the zloty managed to resist Tuesday's increased risk aversion in the markets and traded even. "Nevertheless, current weak market sentiment may put some pressure on the Polish zloty to weaken."




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1123 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.4020

25.3870

-0.06%

-2.76%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

392.0500

390.5750

-0.38%

-2.26%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2790

4.2785

-0.01%

+1.53%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9700

4.9726

+0.05%

+0.09%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9500

117.0500

+0.09%

+0.25%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1611.40

1618.3600

-0.43%

+13.96%

Budapest

.BUX

73424.33

73622.19

-0.27%

+21.12%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2445.55

2445.06

+0.02%

+4.38%

Bucharest

.BETI

18713.72

18696.86

+0.09%

+21.75%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5770

-0.0360

+084bps

-1bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6110

-0.0390

+123bps

-2bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.7540

-0.0310

+132bps

-3bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.0930

-0.0080

+235bps

+2bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.4660

-0.0670

+309bps

-5bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.6220

-0.0420

+319bps

-4bps


FORWARD







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

4.13

3.73

3.54

4.57

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.67

6.06

5.73

6.64

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.82

5.70

5.37

5.86

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************







Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; editing by Mark Heinrich

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/

Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
</body></html>

면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.

온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.

이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.

리스크 경고: 고객님의 자본이 위험에 노출 될 수 있습니다. 레버리지 상품은 모든 분들에게 적합하지 않을수 있습니다. 당사의 리스크 공시를 참고하시기 바랍니다.