Platinum set for biggest deficit in a decade in 2024, says Johnson Matthey

Reuters

Platinum set for biggest deficit in a decade in 2024, says Johnson Matthey

2024 5월 8, 오후 11:01 GMT

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By Brijesh Patel

May 9 (Reuters) -The platinum market faces its largest supply shortfall in 10 years in 2024 as shipments from Russia return to normal from last year's highs and industrial demand stays firm, Johnson Matthey JMAT.L said in a report on Thursday.

The autocatalyst maker added that it expected all platinum group metals (PGM) - platinum, palladium, and rhodium - to remain in deficit in 2024.

The three metals are used in autocatalysts that reduce emissions from vehicle engines, with platinum also used in other industry and for jewellery and investment.

Johnson Matthey (JM) said it expected the platinum market's deficit to increase to 598,000 ounces this year from a shortfall of 518,000 ounces in 2023.

It forecast platinum demand would stabilise at around 7.61 million ounces, with small decreases in automotive and jewellery balanced by an uptick in investment.

Auto sector consumption is expected to slip 1.3% in 2024, while primary supply is projected to fall 2% as Russian shipments return to more normal levels following heavy selling of mined stocks in 2023, JM said.

For palladium, JM said use by automakers would fall about 7%, reducing overall demand to 9.73 million ounces and cutting the market deficit to 358,000 ounces from 1.02 million ounces last year.

For rhodium, auto consumption is also expected to fall - by about 6% - dragging total demand down 4% to 1.06 million ounces. The rhodium market is likely to be undersupplied by 65,000 ounces, down from 125,000 ounces in 2023, JM said.

"Automotive and industrial users bought more metal than they needed during 2020-2022 to mitigate price and supply risks. Since then, consumers have been using up excess PGM inventory, and some have even sold metal back to the market," Rupen Raithatha, market research director at Johnson Matthey, said.

At around $950 an ounce, palladium XPD= is trading lower than platinum XPT= at $960, pressured by growing demand concerns. GOL/

Rhodium RHOD-LON is trading around $4,700 an ounce, down about 84% from all-time highs reached in March 2021.

PLATINUM (THOUSANDS OF OUNCES)

	2023	2024	% change
SUPPLY
Primary supply (mined)	5,791	5,681	-2%
Secondary supply (recycled)	1,300	1,335	3%
TOTAL SUPPLY	7,091	7,016	-1%

DEMAND
Automotive	3,342	3,299	-1%
Chemical	647	643	-1%
Dental & biomedical	264	273	3%
Electrical & electronics	195	221	13%
Glass	776	721	-7%
Investment	46	120	160%
Jewellery	1,361	1,343	-1%
Petroleum	174	180	3%
Pollution control	275	279	1%
Other	529	535	1%
TOTAL DEMAND	7,609	7,614	0%

Movement in stocks	-518	-598

PALLADIUM (THOUSANDS OF OUNCES)

	2023	2024	% change
SUPPLY
Primary supply (mined)	6,547	6,454	-1%
Secondary supply (recycled)	2,807	2,919	4%
TOTAL SUPPLY	9,354	9,373	0%

DEMAND
Automotive	8,745	8,145	-7%
Chemical	543	535	-2%
Dental & biomedical	193	185	-4%
Electrical & electronics	511	524	3%
Investment	61	29	-52%
Jewellery	86	85	-1%
Pollution control	135	140	4%
Other	97	88	-9%
TOTAL DEMAND	10,371	9,731	-7%

Movement in stocks	-1,017	-358

RHODIUM (THOUSANDS OF OUNCES)

	2023	2024	% change
SUPPLY
Primary supply (mined)	701	704	0%
Secondary supply (recycled)	285	295	4%
TOTAL SUPPLY	986	999	1%

DEMAND
Automotive	989	931	-6%
Chemical	81	92	14%
Electrical & electronics	6	6	0%
Glass	18	18	0%
Other	17	17	0%
TOTAL DEMAND	1,111	1,064	4%

Movement in stocks	-125	-65