Oasis-style mega-gigs may increasingly slide away
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
By George Hay
LONDON, Aug 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) -Noel and Liam Gallagher’s long-awaited comeback has supersonic timing. The 400 million pounds in sales and associated revenues the Mancunian brothers stand to generate by reforming iconic 1990s UK band Oasis in 2025 puts them in a similar bracket to Taylor Swift, who last year undertook the first tour to gross over $1 billion. Given industry changes ushered in by music’s streaming era, coining it via live performances is a logical step – but the vogue for superstar setpieces may not live forever.
Recorded music revenues have long been in decline: in the United States, inflation-adjusted sales fell from $27 billion in 1999 to $17 billion in 2023 as consumers increasingly paid a flat rate to the likes of Spotify to stream whatever they wanted instead of buying physical records. That’s fuelled rapid growth in the live market. Live Nation Entertainment LYV.N, a U.S. ticketing group, has seen sales nearly double since 2019, and Goldman Sachs reckons the $35 billion of global live music revenues expected in 2024 may exceed $50 billion by 2030. Instead of getting most of their income from record sales, big-name artists now get 50% to 70% of their income from ticket sales, 20% from recorded music sales, and 10% each from merchandise and sponsorships, according to MIDiA Research.
There’s a finite number of really massive acts, though. The sweet spot, enjoyed by the likes of Swift, Beyoncé, Coldplay and indeed Oasis, is to have become globally famous before streaming took off about a decade ago. That can also ensure a solid cohort of married-with-children fans in their 40s who formed the key audience in the 1990s or early 2000s, and who have the most disposable income now. Younger listeners, who may be the first group’s kids, tend to be interested in music from 20 to 30 years ago but no older.
The flipside is that the next megastars are not being nurtured – smaller acts just starting out are getting squeezed as ticket spend goes on the inflated top end of the market. Algorithm-fuelled streaming leads to more fragmented audiences, and the shelf life of big hits is shorter. With the number of listeners not keeping pace with the supply of new streaming acts and podcasts, artists may need to acquiesce to even less money from distributing their work.
The current pipeline of superstar mega-gigs, plus the appeal of multi-act festivals, will help live revenues grow this decade. And it’s perfectly possible that the rest of the 2020s unearths a rock ’n’ roll star so compelling that they can sell out Wembley stadium many days in a row. Still, by the 2040s it’s likely that the current crop of acts aiming for epic paydays via Oasis-style cultural setpieces – like, say, Olivia Rodrigo – will have a tougher job. While Oasis’s 2025 reappearance will be a money-spinner, the wider phenomenon could increasingly fade away.
Follow @gfhay on X
CONTEXT NEWS
British rock group Oasis on Aug. 29 announced three extra concert dates in the UK for their reunion tour next year.
The band said they were adding the extra gigs due to “unprecedented demand” following registration for tickets pre-sale. They will now play 17 dates next summer.
Birmingham City University estimates that the initial 14 dates could bring in 400 million pounds in ticket sales and other add-ons, with brothers Liam and Noel Gallagher in line to each earn 50 million pounds, the Guardian reported on Aug. 27.
Graphic: Overall, global live music revenues may grow this decade https://reut.rs/3MrP5wM
Editing by Neil Unmack and Oliver Taslic
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