Individual investors a bit more brash as they tap their cash stash
Main indexes red; Dow off most, down ~0.6%
Cons disc weakest S&P sector; Energy leads gainers
Dollar, gold up slightly; crude up ~5%; bitcoin off ~1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.83%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS A BIT MORE BRASH AS THEY TAP THEIR CASH STASH
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) surveys its members monthly as to their asset allocation. This survey can offer additional insights into market sentiment. That is, how confident, or cautious, investors are.
Here is a table showing the percentages investors allocated to stocks, bonds and cash for the most recent month of September:
SEPTEMBER | |
STOCKS AND STOCK FUNDS | 68.74% |
BONDS AND BOND FUNDS | 14.45% |
CASH | 16.81% |
From a contrarian perspective, relatively low levels of cash can suggest investors are fully invested and complacent ahead of what could be an equity market top. High levels of cash can suggest investors are defensive and scared ahead of what may be an equity market low.
In June, investor cash fell to 15%, hitting its lowest level since November 2021. It then rose to 15.4% in July and then to 16.84% in August. The August print was the its highest level since January of this year. In September, it ticked down again to 16.81%:
Just looking back over the past 10 years or so, major S&P 500 index .SPX declines that began in May 2015, October 2018, February 2020, and January 2022, were preceded by individual investor cash troughs in the 13% to 14.8% area.
The increased commitment to cash over the past three months is concerning, though the near-10% S&P 500 decline from mid-July to early-August has been completely recouped, leading to fresh record highs. Thus, September's tick down in cash may suggest easing anxiety that the worst has passed for now.
If, however, individual investors were to resume building cash, it could be an issue. If the level exceeds October 2023's 19.73% reading, it would end the pattern of declining peaks and troughs in their cash position from the October 2022 high, and may well coincide with a much greater rise in fear amid greater market instability.
Conversely, if cash were to become significantly depleted again, and tests the past decade's lows, it will, from a contrarian perspective, also raise a red flag.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
ARE INVESTORS DRIVING THE UTILITIES SECTOR INTO AN OVERBOUGHT CONDITION? - CLICK HERE
THURSDAY DATA JAMBOREE: CLAIMS, LAYOFFS, SERVICES PMI, FACTORY ORDERS - CLICK HERE
U.S. STOCKS SLIP IN EARLY TRADE - CLICK HERE
UBS SEES ABOUT 7% UPSIDE IN MSCI AC WORLD INDEX - CLICK HERE
DOWN THE STRETCH, MOMENTUM INCREASES ITS LEAD - CLICK HERE
CHINA STIMULUS OFFERS ARRAY OF OPPORTUNITIES - JANUS HENDERSON - CLICK HERE
STOXX ERASES CHINA RALLY, AUTOS DRAG - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES EASE, TESCO UPS PROFIT FORECAST - CLICK HERE
PMIS TO PAVE THE WAY FOR RATE CUTS - CLICK HERE
AAIIAssetAlloc10032024 https://tmsnrt.rs/47UC0Wt
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
