FX stablise as markets take in softer-than-expected inflation data
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, July 11 (Reuters) -Central European currencies drifted on Thursday as markets assessedthe latest round of inflation data in Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary, with the crown holding off a three-month low.
The Czech crown EURCZK= traded at 25.366 per euro by 0825 GMT, down 0.1% from Wednesday's close, after falling to its weakest since April - at 25.425 - in the previous session when it was pressured by a cooler-than-expected inflation print.
Czech inflation eased to 2% year-on-year in June, well below a Reuters forecast of 2.5% and central bank expectations, boosting betsthat the central bank may not yet slow its rate-cutting tempo like it has signalled.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) has delivered four straight 50 basis-point (bp)rate cuts.
"Market pricing has moved significantly to the side of a 50bp rate cut for the next meeting," ING said in a note.
"Our economists are currently unchanged in their preference for a 25bp rate cut for the August meeting, but it is FX that is likely to be key to the final central bank decision."
Central bank Vice-Governor Eva Zamrazilova in an interview withnews website Seznam Zpravy on Thursday saidthat the bank could continue easing policy, although she did not say to what extent.
In Romania, the leu EURRON= was steady at 4.9750 versus the common currency after inflation dropped to 4.94% on-yearin June from 5.12% in the previous month, slightly above expectations.
"The reading is significantly below current NBR forecast, which is an argument in favor of our baseline of three more 25 basis points rate cuts this year bringing the key rate at 6.00% by year-end," BCR bank wrote in a note.
"But on the other hand, the CPI outlook is clouded by … the volatile administered energy prices. Because of this, we see some chances … of one less cut this year."
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was also flat. June inflation, published on Tuesday, came in below expectations and stayed within the central bank's target range.
The National Bank of Hungary cut its base rate by 25 bpsto 7.00% in June and said the scope for more rate cuts in the second half of this year would be extremely narrow.
Investors are also eyingU.S. inflation data, due later in the day.
"If the indicator surprises with a negative reading compared to expectations, the dollar could weaken ... under the influence of strengthening expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cut in September," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.
"At the same time, such a scenario would support the value of the zloty, which after reaching the level of 4.2505 per EUR began to weaken slightly," they said.
The zloty EURPLN= edged down 0.05% to trade at 4.262 per euro.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1025 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3710 | 25.3450 | -0.10% | -2.64% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 393.5500 | 393.5500 | +0.00% | -2.63% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2620 | 4.2600 | -0.05% | +1.94% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9750 | 4.9740 | -0.02% | -0.01% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9200 | 117.0200 | +0.09% | +0.28% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1579.14 | 1580.2900 | -0.07% | +11.68% |
Budapest | .BUX | 71743.27 | 71511.70 | +0.32% | +18.35% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2523.36 | 2521.39 | +0.08% | +7.70% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18467.29 | 18432.82 | +0.19% | +20.14% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.9340 | 0.1250 | +103bps | +12bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.8440 | -0.0010 | +130bps | -1bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.9980 | -0.0050 | +145bps | -1bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.2140 | 0.0340 | +231bps | +3bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.6040 | -0.0710 | +306bps | -8bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.7350 | -0.0360 | +319bps | -5bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.62 | 4.66 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.50 | 6.22 | 5.92 | 6.85 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.82 | 5.71 | 5.49 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
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Additional reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Sonia Cheema
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