Dollar hits four-month low as weak jobs data boosts rate cut bets

Reuters

Dollar hits four-month low as weak jobs data boosts rate cut bets

2024 8월 2, 오후 2:58 GMT

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Updated at 10:45 EDT

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar dropped to a four-month low onFriday after a weaker than expected employment report for July raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September as the economy sours.

Employers added 114,000 jobs, below expectations for an increase of 175,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, above economists expectations that it would be unchanged on the month at 4.1%.

"This is what a growth scare looks like. The market is now realizing that the economy is indeed slowing," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners in Princeton, New Jersey.

The U.S. Labor Department also said that Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall in Texas on July 8, had"no discernible effect" on the data.

"There's no silver lining anywhere as far as I can tell. They say they didn't have any kind of hurricane effects, and if they did, it's not enough to offset the degree of softness that we're seeing," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered's New York Branch.

Traders are now pricing in a 71% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September, up from 31% before the data was released and from 22% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

A cut of at least 25 basis points is fully priced in for September and more than 100 basis points of easing is now expected by year-end. FEDWATCH

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rates could be cut as soon as September if the U.S. economy follows its expected path.

Softer jobs data , a weak manufacturing report and some disappointing corporate earnings outlooks in recent days have increased fears that the economy is worsening at a faster pace.

But despite Friday's weak jobs report, Englander notes that "most of the other indicators are not consistent with a really sharp slowdown at the moment... Everything is soft, but nothing is catastrophically soft."

New economic releases will now be even more closely watched for confirmation on whether the growth outlook is as bad as feared.

The dollar index =USD was last down 1.13% at 103.18 and got as low as 103.16, the lowest sinceMarch 14. It is the largest one-day percentage drop since November.

The euro EUR=EBS gained 1.16% to $1.0916 and reached $1.09175, the highest since July 18.

The greenback weakened 1.71% to 146.8 Japanese yen JPY=EBS and got as low as 146.75,the lowest since March 12.

The yen has gained since hitting a 38-year low of 161.96 against the dollar on July 3, boosted by interventions by Japanese authorities and traders unwinding carry trades in which they were short the yen and long U.S. dollar assets.

It got an extra boost on Wednesday when the Bank of Japan hiked rates to 0.25%, the highest since 2008 .

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc were also boosted by safe haven demand amid the stocks selloff and geopolitical concerns.

The funeral of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh took place in Qatar on Friday following his assassination two days ago in Iran's capital Tehran, which investors worry may lead to a widening conflict in the Middle East.

The dollar weakened 1.46% to 0.86 Swiss franc CHF=D3.

Sterling strengthened 0.64% to $1.282, bouncing back from losses on Thursday when the Bank of England cut interest rates from a 16-year high .

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.20% to $63,885.

Reporting By Karen Brettell
Additional reporting by Chibuike Oguh
Editing by Frances Kerry and Gareth Jones

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