BOJ to hike rates by year-end, say majority of analysts; no September change seen
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=JPGDPQP GDP poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=JPCPIQP core CPI poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=JPONCQP BOJ overnight call rate poll data
By Satoshi Sugiyama
TOKYO, Sept 13 (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will not raise interest rates at a policy meeting next week, economists unanimously said in a Reuters poll published on Friday, but a majority of them still expect an increase by year-end.
Little changed from a survey last month, with the findings showing analysts' conviction the BOJ is committed to emerge from decades of massive monetary stimulus at a time its global peers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are moving toward rate cuts.
None of the 52 economists in the Sept. 4-12 poll said the BOJ would raise borrowing costs at its Sept. 19-20 meeting. However, 54%, or 28, expect the bank would do so by the end of the year, slightly down from 57% in an August poll.
The median prediction for the rate by end-year was 25 basis points higher at 0.50%, the same as the last poll.
Among a smaller sample of 23 economists who predicted higher rates by year-end and also provided a forecast for a specific month when the BOJ will next change them, more than three-quarters, 18, said December and the rest of the five said October.
The BOJ is expected to proceed cautiously with rate hikes at a pace of about once every six months while assessing the impact of monetary tightening on the domestic economy, said Junki Iwahashi, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.
"However, the difficulty of raising interest rates additionally will increase if financial markets are once again disrupted by a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy or an acceleration in the pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S.," he said.
Of another 15 economists who provided monthly forecasts and anticipated either a rate hike next year or no further increase at all, 60%, or nine, chose January.
The central bank surprised many market participants in July by raising base borrowing costs to 0.25% from a range of 0-0.1%, just four months after abandoning negative rates.
Despite last month's market rout, BOJ officials have repeatedly signalled the central bank would proceed with steady monetary tightening.
Japan's economy grew at a slightly slower pace than initially reported last quarter, government data showed on Monday, hurt by downward revisions in corporate and household spending that point to a bumpier second half of consumption and the central bank's rate-hike plans.
The economy is expected to only recover at a moderate pace, since consumers wary of higher prices are reluctant to spend despite tax cuts and bigger summer bonuses boosting households' disposable income, said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
There was no consensus among economists on which ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election candidates has economic policy with the best chances of stimulating medium-term growth.
Of 21 respondents, Shinjiro Koizumi and Taro Kono were economists' top picks with four votes each. Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi and Toshimitsu Motegi tied second place with three votes each.
The current administration's policy will continue in broad terms irrespective of whoever becomes the next LDP leader at least in the short term, said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.
The party leadership race will take place on Sept. 27, and the winner will be appointed prime minister at an extraordinary parliament session early in October.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Polling by Rahul Trivedi and Anant Chandak; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Shri Navaratnam
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
