Australia's renewables to set key output milestone in 2024: Maguire
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters
By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 2 (Reuters) -For the first time, electricity generation from Australian solar and wind farms could match that coming from the country's coal-fired power plants this summer.
Combined solar and wind electricity generation is on track to hit between 8 and 9 terawatt hours (TWh) a month during the heart of the Australian summer, according to Reuters projections using historical data from energy think tank Ember.
Coal-fired electricity generation is likely to decline to similar levels over the same period, and mark the first time that renewables have a shot of surpassing coal as Australia's chief source of electricity.
TURNAROUND
The fact that renewables generation is even coming close to that from coal plants in Australia highlights the remarkable turnaround in the country's electricity mix.
A decade ago, coal-fired generation was 10 times the combined output from solar and wind farms, and coal accounted for more than64% of Australia's electricity supplies until 2020.
Rapid renewables growth has turned things around, however.
Combined generation from solar and wind farms has grown by 22% a year since 2018, and this year could supply over 30% of total electricity for the first time, data from Ember shows.
Australian electricity production from solar and wind farms jumped from less than 30 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2018 to 77 TWh in 2023, and is on track to surpass 80 TWH in 2024.
The nearly 170% jump in solar and wind production from 2018 to 2023 contrasts with a nearly 20% decline in coal-fired generation over the same period, and resulted in a sharp reconfiguration of Australia's generation mix.
Coal-fired emissions have dropped due to the output cuts, from nearly 140 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2018 to 110 million tons in 2023, helping to advance national pollution reduction efforts.
REVERSAL?
So far in 2024, a nearly 20% drop in output from hydro dams and flat production from wind farms has triggered a nearly 4% climb in coal-fired generation.
However, the peak generation window for renewables output is still ahead, which should allow utilities to curb coal production over the latter half of the year.
Solar production during August was 3.2 TWh, but historically rises by around 75% by December, which is typically the peak month for solar production in Australia.
A repeat of that trend in 2024 would put this December's solar production at around 5.5 TWh.
However, so far in 2024 solar generation is running around 11% ahead of 2023's monthly totals, thanks to capacity increases brought online this year.
That suggests that this year's solar output during the peak production window could rise by a similar degree, and push total solar generation closer to 6 TWh by December.
Wind output in December has averaged around 2.5 TWh since 2021, and so would bring total solar and wind generation to around 8.5 TWh that month this year if solar production matches expectations.
COAL CUTS?
Coal generation has averaged 11.2 TWh a month so far in 2024, but has historically hit its lowest generation levels for the year in September, October and November during the Australian spring.
In 2023, the coal output low for the year was 9.2 TWh in September, while in 2022 the yearly low was 9 TWh set in November.
This year, a drop below 9 TWh is possible in October or November if both solar and wind generation rise as expected, and could result in combined solar and wind output matching coal-fired generation for the first time.
Coal output will likely rise again in December due to greater demand for cooling, which would cement coal's place as Australia's primary electricity source.
But for a brief window this summer, coal's supremacy could be matched by renewables for the first time, signalling a taste of things to come if the country's utilities continue to roll out more renewable capacity.
<The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.>
For the first time, Australia electricity output from solar + wind farms could match output from coal-fired plants in 2024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4gQlpY0
Seasonal trends in Australia electricity output from solar + wind farms vs coal-fired power plants https://tmsnrt.rs/3BraAvz
Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Jacqueline Wong
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
