S&P 500 rebound stalls near 200-MA as retailers take the earnings spotlight - Stock Market News
The S&P 500 is flirting with the key 4,000 level again, having bounced back more than 14% from the October trough when it plunged to its lowest in almost two years. Much of the gains are attributed to the euphoria surrounding the softening inflation picture in the US that has spurred another wave of repricing in money markets, this time leading to a lower Fed terminal rate.
This back and forth between hawkish and dovish bets is nothing new, and neither is the Fedโs consistent messaging that rate increases still have some way to go. Hence, as the S&P 500 approaches its 200-day moving average (MA), this could be another sell signal as was the case during the previous rebound in August.
On the lookout for trend reversal signalsThe only difference to note here, however, is that the descending trend line lies somewhat above the 200-day MA, so the rally could stretch a bit further. Another potential focal point for the bulls is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 downtrend at 4,155, which would lift the index both above the 200-day MA and the downtrend line.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/SnP500.png)
However, a more convincing signal for a trend reversal would be if the S&P 500 climbs above the 4,300 level โ the 61.8% Fibonacci as well as the August top. But this looks like quite a tough challenge at the moment given that the Fed has had a tendency lately to nip any talk of a dovish pivot in the bud.
Retailers in focusAdditionally, whilst it may be true that bad news on the economy is good news, as it would increase the likelihood of the Fed going easy on rate hikes, a recession doesnโt bode well for the earnings outlook, especially if weโre only at the early stages of one.
Department store chain, Target, just announced a 49% drop in year-on-year earnings per share (EPS), and although revenue slightly beat estimates in its third fiscal quarter, the company was downbeat about sales in the holiday quarter.
The other big department store operators, Macyโs and Kohlโs, which are due to report on Thursday, are likely to be in the same boat. But as always, where there are losers, there are winners, and the exception in this case is Walmart.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Retailers_perf.png)
As the cost-of-living crisis squeezes householdsโ incomes, Americans are flooding to discount retailers such as Walmart for their groceries and shunning the more premium brands. Walmart beat both its EPS and revenue estimates for the third quarter by a wide margin. Another unique feature about Walmart is its success in developing an in-house advertising platform for its website, which is generating additional revenue for the company.
With the earnings season now drawing to a close, the main takeaway has been that itโs not all doom and gloom out there. Ultimately, however, whether this is just another bear market rally or an actual trend reversal will be determined by how soon the Fed makes its eagerly awaited dovish pivot.์ต์ ๋ด์ค
๋ฉด์ฑ ์กฐํญ: XM Group ํ์ฌ๋ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ ์ ์ฉ ์๋น์ค์ ์จ๋ผ์ธ ๊ฑฐ๋ ํ๋ซํผ์ ๋ํ ์ ๊ทผ์ ์ ๊ณตํ์ฌ, ๊ฐ์ธ์ด ์น์ฌ์ดํธ์์ ๋๋ ์น์ฌ์ดํธ๋ฅผ ํตํด ์ด์ฉ ๊ฐ๋ฅํ ์ฝํ ์ธ ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฑฐ๋ ์ฌ์ฉํ ์ ์๋๋ก ํ์ฉํฉ๋๋ค. ์ด์ ๋ํด ๋ณ๊ฒฝํ๊ฑฐ๋ ํ์ฅํ ์๋๋ ์์ต๋๋ค. ์ด๋ฌํ ์ ๊ทผ ๋ฐ ์ฌ์ฉ์๋ ๋ค์ ์ฌํญ์ด ํญ์ ์ ์ฉ๋ฉ๋๋ค: (i) ์ด์ฉ ์ฝ๊ด, (ii) ์ํ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ , (iii) ์์ ๋ฉด์ฑ ์กฐํญ. ๋ฐ๋ผ์, ์ด๋ฌํ ์ฝํ ์ธ ๋ ์ผ๋ฐ์ ์ธ ์ ๋ณด์ ๋ถ๊ณผํฉ๋๋ค. ํนํ, ์จ๋ผ์ธ ๊ฑฐ๋ ํ๋ซํผ์ ์ฝํ ์ธ ๋ ๊ธ์ต ์์ฅ์์์ ๊ฑฐ๋์ ๋ํ ๊ถ์ ๋ ์ ์์ด ์๋๋๋ค. ๊ธ์ต ์์ฅ์์์ ๊ฑฐ๋๋ ์๋ณธ์ ์๋นํ ์ํ์ ์๋ฐํฉ๋๋ค.
์จ๋ผ์ธ ๊ฑฐ๋ ํ๋ซํผ์ ๊ณต๊ฐ๋ ๋ชจ๋ ์๋ฃ๋ ๊ต์ก/์ ๋ณด ๋ชฉ์ ์ผ๋ก๋ง ์ ๊ณต๋๋ฉฐ, ๊ธ์ต, ํฌ์์ธ ๋๋ ๊ฑฐ๋ ์กฐ์ธ ๋ฐ ๊ถ๊ณ , ๊ฑฐ๋ ๊ฐ๊ฒฉ ๊ธฐ๋ก, ๊ธ์ต ์ํ ๋๋ ์์น ์๋ ๊ธ์ต ํ๋ก๋ชจ์ ์ ๊ฑฐ๋ ์ ์ ๋๋ ๊ถ์ ๋ฅผ ํฌํจํ์ง ์์ผ๋ฉฐ, ํฌํจํด์๋ ์๋ฉ๋๋ค.
์ด ์น์ฌ์ดํธ์ ํฌํจ๋ ๋ชจ๋ ์๊ฒฌ, ๋ด์ค, ๋ฆฌ์์น, ๋ถ์, ๊ฐ๊ฒฉ, ๊ธฐํ ์ ๋ณด ๋๋ ์ 3์ ์ฌ์ดํธ์ ๋ํ ๋งํฌ์ ๊ฐ์ด XM์ด ์ค๋นํ๋ ์ฝํ ์ธ ๋ฟ๋ง ์๋๋ผ, ์ 3์ ์ฝํ ์ธ ๋ ์ผ๋ฐ ์์ฅ ๋ ผํ์ผ๋ก์ "ํ์ฌ" ๊ธฐ์ค์ผ๋ก ์ ๊ณต๋๋ฉฐ, ํฌ์ ์กฐ์ธ์ผ๋ก ์ฌ๊ฒจ์ง์ง ์์ต๋๋ค. ๋ชจ๋ ์ฝํ ์ธ ๊ฐ ํฌ์ ๋ฆฌ์์น๋ก ํด์๋๋ ๊ฒฝ์ฐ, ํฌ์ ๋ฆฌ์์น์ ๋ ๋ฆฝ์ฑ์ ์ด์งํ๊ธฐ ์ํด ๊ณ ์๋ ๋ฒ์ ์๊ฑด์ ๋ฐ๋ผ ์ฝํ ์ธ ๊ฐ ์๋๋์ง ์์์ผ๋ฉฐ, ์ค๋น๋์ง ์์๋ค๋ ์ ์ ์ธ์งํ๊ณ ๋์ํด์ผ ํฉ๋๋ค. ๋ฐ๋ผ์, ๊ด๋ จ ๋ฒ๋ฅ ๋ฐ ๊ท์ ์ ๋ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ง์ผํ ์ปค๋ฎค๋์ผ์ด์ ์ด๋ผ๊ณ ๊ฐ์ฃผ๋ฉ๋๋ค. ์ฌ๊ธฐ์์ ์ ๊ทผํ ์ ์๋ ์์ ์ธ๊ธํ ์ ๋ณด์ ๋ํ ๋น๋ ๋ฆฝ ํฌ์ ๋ฆฌ์์น ๋ฐ ์ํ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ์๋ฆผ์ ์ฝ๊ณ , ์ดํดํ์๊ธฐ ๋ฐ๋๋๋ค.