Fed goes big, markets yo-yo
By Jamie McGeever
Sept 19 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
"Go big, and go bold," was the advice to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues from some U.S. policy watchers and even former policymakers, and didn't they do just that.
The Federal Reserve's half percentage point interest rate cut on Wednesday was a statement of intent that the Fed stands ready to protect the labor market and steer the economy away from anything approaching recession.
Investors liked it, at first. The S&P 500, Dow and gold all leaped to fresh record highs, the Russell 200 small caps index rallied nearly 2%, and the dollar fell across the board.
But stocks' and gold's gains melted away and the dollar bounced back from a 14-month low to close the U.S. session up on the day.
What gives? Maybe the bond market reaction was most prescient. Treasury yields rose across the curve, more so at the longer end, perhaps on underlying worries over inflation and easier financial conditions, or because the Fed slightly revised up its long-run forecast for the fed funds rate.
This sends mixed signals for Asian markets on Thursday.
Who says central banks no longer retain the element of surprise? Bank Indonesia's quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday was not on the cards - only three of the 33 economists polled by Reuters predicted the move, with the remaining 30 expecting the policy rate to be left at 6.25%.
Perhaps surprisingly, the rupiah didn't move much and stuck close to its strongest levels against the dollar in about a year.
Now that the Fed has taken its first step on its easing path also, other central banks in Asia are likely to feel more comfortable loosening policy. But not Taiwan, not yet at least.
Taiwan's central bank is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged on Thursday, according to all 32 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll, and stay the course until late next year as it deals with lingering inflation concerns.
The central bank left the benchmark discount rate at 2% as expected at its last quarterly meeting in June, having hiked it to that level from 1.875% at the prior meeting in March.
Investors in Asia also have New Zealand GDP, unemployment figures from Australia and Hong Kong, and trade data from Malaysia on their plate on Thursday.
Traders may also be adjusting positions ahead of Japanese inflation figures and rate decisions on Friday from the Bank of Japan and People's Bank of China.
The dark cloud of deflation hangs heavily over China, especially the property sector. Previous housing market crashes around the world suggest it could take China a decade to recover from the bubble currently bursting. And that's if prices even get back to their pre-bubble peaks.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Thursday:
- Taiwan interest rate decision
- New Zealand GDP (Q2)
- Australia unemployment (August)
Fed cuts rates by 50 bps, joins easing cycle https://reut.rs/3MPDwzD
Dollar/yen's yo-yo trading after Fed decision https://tmsnrt.rs/3BaIrbX
China house price crash in global context https://tmsnrt.rs/3B93fR3
Reporting by Jamie McGeever
Asset collegati
Ultime news
Disclaimer: le entità di XM Group forniscono servizi di sola esecuzione e accesso al nostro servizio di trading online, che permette all'individuo di visualizzare e/o utilizzare i contenuti disponibili sul sito o attraverso di esso; non ha il proposito di modificare o espandere le proprie funzioni, né le modifica o espande. L'accesso e l'utilizzo sono sempre soggetti a: (i) Termini e condizioni; (ii) Avvertenza sui rischi e (iii) Disclaimer completo. Tali contenuti sono perciò forniti a scopo puramente informativo. Nello specifico, ti preghiamo di considerare che i contenuti del nostro servizio di trading online non rappresentano un sollecito né un'offerta ad operare sui mercati finanziari. Il trading su qualsiasi mercato finanziario comporta un notevole livello di rischio per il tuo capitale.
Tutto il materiale pubblicato sul nostro servizio di trading online è unicamente a scopo educativo e informativo, e non contiene (e non dovrebbe essere considerato come contenente) consigli e raccomandazioni di carattere finanziario, di trading o fiscale, né informazioni riguardanti i nostri prezzi di trading, offerte o solleciti riguardanti transazioni che possano coinvolgere strumenti finanziari, oppure promozioni finanziarie da te non richieste.
Tutti i contenuti di terze parti, oltre ai contenuti offerti da XM, siano essi opinioni, news, ricerca, analisi, prezzi, altre informazioni o link a siti di terzi presenti su questo sito, sono forniti "così com'è", e vanno considerati come commenti generali sui mercati; per questo motivo, non possono essere visti come consigli di investimento. Dato che tutti i contenuti sono intesi come ricerche di investimento, devi considerare e accettare che non sono stati preparati né creati seguendo i requisiti normativi pensati per promuovere l'indipendenza delle ricerche di investimento; per questo motivo, questi contenuti devono essere considerati come comunicazioni di marketing in base alle leggi e normative vigenti. Assicurati di avere letto e compreso pienamente la nostra Notifica sulla ricerca di investimento non indipendente e la nostra Informativa sul rischio riguardante le informazioni sopra citate; tali documenti sono consultabili qui.
