Dollar gains as Powell pushes back on jumbo rate-cut bets
Fed Chair Powell says not 'in a hurry' to lower rates
Yen steadies as traders assess incoming Japanese PM
Aussie dollar firm after upbeat retail sales data
Updates prices at 1050 GMT
By Amanda Cooper and Brigid Riley
LONDON/TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) -The dollar rosebroadly on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against bets on more supersized interest rate cuts.
The yen steadied close to the middle of its range against the dollar over the past month, after a volatile two days as traders sized up Japan's incoming prime minister and his cabinet.
The Australian dollar edged towards Monday's high after upbeat domestic retail sales data, while the euro EUR=EBS was set for a third daily loss, following inflation data that made a rate cut this month more likely.
Over in the United States, Powell adopted a more hawkish tone in a speech at a conference in Tennessee, saying the world's biggest central bank waslikely tostick with quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts from now on.
"This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly," he said.
Traders remain certain that the Fed will cut again at the next policy-settingmeeting in November, but slashed expectations for a 50 basis-point (bps) reduction to 35.4% from 53.3% a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
"The door has not been closed on a 50 bps cut, because if economic data tanks then such a cut is warranted. But Powell clearly thinks markets are overly excited" about upcoming cuts, said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.
The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a larger-than-expected half-point reduction last month.
Powell's speech came ahead of a heavy week of U.S. data, including the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index later on Tuesday and non-manufacturing report on Thursday, followed by Friday's potentially crucial monthly jobs figures.
If the ISM non-manufacturing data and jobs report come in above expectations again this month, the dollar could see a "decent bounce" higher before eventually resuming its downward track, said Simpson.
The dollar index =USD rose 0.4% to 101.11, marking a one-week high, havingposted a third successive monthly decline on Monday, with a near 1% fall in September.
The dollar was up 0.1% at 143.57 yenJPY=EBS, after whipsawing from as high as 146.495 yen on Friday to as low as 141.65 yen on Monday.
MARKETS SEE NEW JAPAN PM AS MONETARY HAWK
Shigeru Ishiba, due to be confirmed as Japan's new premier later on Tuesday, is seen by markets as a monetary policy hawk, despite a recent toning-downof rhetoric on the need for policy normalisation.
He won his party's leadership vote on Friday in one of the closest-ever races, and is now attempting to unify the party after calling a snap general election for Oct. 27.
Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) September meeting showed on Tuesday that policymakers discussed the need for caution on near-term interest rate hikes, with little impact on the market.
"Ultimately, our view on the BOJ remains more hawkish than the market's pricing for 13 bps of tightening over the next three meetings, so even if the tactical picture is turning more skewed to the upside for dollar/yen – not least because of risks of correction higher in dollar rates – we are not ready to call for a sustained, multi-month yen underperformance," ING strategist Francesco Pesole said.
The euro traded around one-week lows following a drop in German inflation to the lowest since early 2021, boosting speculation about another rate reduction this month.
The euro EUR=EBS fell 0.4% on the day to $1.1085, around its lowest since Sept. 19.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told parliament that"the latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner", and saidthis should be reflected in the Oct. 17 policy decision.
Deutsche Bank on Tuesday changed its ECB call, saying itnow saw another cut in October, after previouslyforecasting thenext cut in December.
The Aussie AUD=D3 was last down 0.12% on the day at $0.68995, not far from Monday's1-1/2 year peak of $0.6943, after Australian retail sales rebounded more than expected in August.
The kiwi traded at $0.63105 NZD=D3, down 0.65%.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Kim Coghill, Shri Navaratnam and Kevin Liffey
Asset collegati
Ultime news
Disclaimer: le entità di XM Group forniscono servizi di sola esecuzione e accesso al nostro servizio di trading online, che permette all'individuo di visualizzare e/o utilizzare i contenuti disponibili sul sito o attraverso di esso; non ha il proposito di modificare o espandere le proprie funzioni, né le modifica o espande. L'accesso e l'utilizzo sono sempre soggetti a: (i) Termini e condizioni; (ii) Avvertenza sui rischi e (iii) Disclaimer completo. Tali contenuti sono perciò forniti a scopo puramente informativo. Nello specifico, ti preghiamo di considerare che i contenuti del nostro servizio di trading online non rappresentano un sollecito né un'offerta ad operare sui mercati finanziari. Il trading su qualsiasi mercato finanziario comporta un notevole livello di rischio per il tuo capitale.
Tutto il materiale pubblicato sul nostro servizio di trading online è unicamente a scopo educativo e informativo, e non contiene (e non dovrebbe essere considerato come contenente) consigli e raccomandazioni di carattere finanziario, di trading o fiscale, né informazioni riguardanti i nostri prezzi di trading, offerte o solleciti riguardanti transazioni che possano coinvolgere strumenti finanziari, oppure promozioni finanziarie da te non richieste.
Tutti i contenuti di terze parti, oltre ai contenuti offerti da XM, siano essi opinioni, news, ricerca, analisi, prezzi, altre informazioni o link a siti di terzi presenti su questo sito, sono forniti "così com'è", e vanno considerati come commenti generali sui mercati; per questo motivo, non possono essere visti come consigli di investimento. Dato che tutti i contenuti sono intesi come ricerche di investimento, devi considerare e accettare che non sono stati preparati né creati seguendo i requisiti normativi pensati per promuovere l'indipendenza delle ricerche di investimento; per questo motivo, questi contenuti devono essere considerati come comunicazioni di marketing in base alle leggi e normative vigenti. Assicurati di avere letto e compreso pienamente la nostra Notifica sulla ricerca di investimento non indipendente e la nostra Informativa sul rischio riguardante le informazioni sopra citate; tali documenti sono consultabili qui.
