Australia inflation slows to 3-1/2 year low, but sticky core to push RBA cut to 2025
Headline CPI at 2.8% in Q3, back in RBA's target band of 2-3%
Core sticky at 3.5%, services inflation picks up
Data supports view of 2025 rate cuts; muted reaction in markets
Adds CBA giving up their Dec rate cut call
By Stella Qiu
SYDNEY, Oct 30 (Reuters) -Australian consumer price inflation slowed to a 3-1/2 year low in the third quarter, though the core measure was still sticky and reinforced market wagers that the central bank won't start cutting rates until next year.
Overall, the report was rather mixed, with consumers benefiting from government rebates on electricity and a drop in petrol, while services price pressures persisted.
That kept market reaction muted. Investors slightly pared the chance of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia this December and next February to just 24% and 44%. Markets still see April next year as the most likely timing for the first easing. 0#RBAWATCH
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in the third quarter, under forecasts of a 0.3% increase.
Annual inflation dropped to 2.8%, from 3.8%, taking it back into the RBA's 2-3% target band for the first time since 2021, a result that was largely expected.
The slowdown was driven by a 17.3% drop in electricity prices due to the government's subsidies, while petrol fell 6.2% in the quarter.
Policymakers are more focused on core inflation and the trimmed mean measure increased by 0.8% in the quarter, just above forecasts of a 0.7% gain. The annual pace though slowed to 3.5% from 4.0%.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Wednesday abandoned its call for a first rate cut in December as the core measure was a touch firmer than it had expected. It is now pencilling in a cut in February next year, along with the other three big banks in Australia.
"The process of normalising the cash rate will be a story for 2025," said Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA.
Services inflation remains a source of concern for the RBA, staying elevated at 4.6% in the third quarter, slightly higher than the June quarter's 4.5%, and little changed over the past 12 months.
The central bank will have an updated set of economic forecasts when it decides on its next policy move on Tuesday.
The slow easing in inflation had Australian grocer Woolworths WOW.AX warning on Wednesday that earnings from its food division may fall as price-conscious consumers hunt for bargains.
POSITIVE IMPULSE
For September alone, CPI rose a muted 2.1% compared with a year earlier, the lowest since July 2021. The trimmed mean measure slowed to 3.2%, just a touch above the top of the target band.
The RBA has held its policy steady since November, judging the current cash rate of 4.35% - up from 0.1% during the pandemic - is restrictive enough to bring inflation to its target band of 2-3% while preserving employment gains.
The labour market has stayed surprisingly resilient, an argument against early rate cuts. But the easing in annual core inflation comes ahead of the RBA's projection for it to slow to 3.5% by the end of the year.
"Although quarterly trimmed mean CPI is not yet rising at pace consistent with the RBA’s target range, we think it will do so before long," Abhijit Surya, Australia and New Zealand Economist at Capital Economics.
"That should pave the way for the Bank to begin easing policy at its meeting next February," said Surya.
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Shri Navaratnam
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