Dollar near six-week high ahead of US jobs report; yen wobbles
Updates at 0338 GMT
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, Oct 4 (Reuters) -The dollar hovered near a six-week high on Friday ahead of a payrolls report that could decide the path of U.S. interest rates, while the yen headed for its weakest weekly performance since 2016, hit by uncertainty over Japan's monetary policy.
The dollar was also boosted by safe-haven demand as investors weighed widening Middle East tensions and their impact on the global economy.
The dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. unit against six peers, was last at 101.90, not far from a six-week high of 102.09 touched on Thursday. The index is up nearly 1.5%, for the week, its strongest such performance since April.
The euro EUR=EBS was steady at $1.1034, having dropped 1.18% this week.
Data on Thursday showed the U.S. labour market gliding at the end of the third quarter, setting the stage for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Economists polled by Reuters expect 140,000 job additions, while unemployment is anticipated to keep steady at 4.2%.
"There is little evidence to suggest a U.S. hard landing is on the horizon," said Prashant Newnaha, a senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.
"Our sense is that the risks to September non-farm payrolls lie to the upside and should see U.S. Treasuries continue their push higher in yield."
The jobs report comes as markets contend with an improving U.S. economic picture and a more hawkish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who dashed some hopes on Monday that it would go big on interest rate cuts again next month.
Markets are pricing in a 33% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in November by 50 basis points (bps), down from 49% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. The Fed cut interest rates last month by 50 bps.
A stronger-than-expected September payrolls number could be viewed as dovish, said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets, as it would bring the unemployment rate in line with the Fed's end-2024 forecast.
"This may prompt some officials to consider a 50bp rate cut at in November," he said.
"Even if (the payrolls data) is uneventful, the dollar will face another round of key data next month, with one more payroll report due just before the November meeting."
YEN WOES
Investors are still digesting the plethora of dovish comments from Japanese politicians and policymakers that have reinforced the view that the Bank of Japan will be in no rush to raise interest rates.
The economy was not ready for further rate hikes, Japan's new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said this week in surprisingly blunt remarks that pushed the yen lower. He is set to make a policy speech at 0500 GMT.
The Asian currency JPY=EBS has slid about 3% in its biggest weekly decline since November 2016, and touched its lowest level since Aug. 20, at 147.25 to the dollar. On Friday, the yen was 0.3% higher, at 146.43.
With Japan's general elections set for Oct. 27, analysts broadly expect the BOJ to hold rates in the near term.
Sterling GBP=D3 was nursing losses after sliding 1% on Thursday following comments by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who said the central bank could aggressively cut rates if inflation pressures continued to ease.
On Friday, the pound last fetched $1.3127, hovering close to a three-week low of $1.3093 touched on Thursday. It has risen more than 3% this year, largely on market expectations for the BoE to keep rates higher for longer.
"Bailey on Thursday stuck the boot into the pound's great bull run," Ray Attrill, head of FX research at the National Australia Bank (NAB), said in a note. "We think it unlikely the BoE will speed things up this side of Feb 2025."
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 was little changed at $0.6843 but was down 0.8% for the week and set for its first weekly decline in four.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Edwina Gibbs
Asset collegati
Ultime news
Disclaimer: le entità di XM Group forniscono servizi di sola esecuzione e accesso al nostro servizio di trading online, che permette all'individuo di visualizzare e/o utilizzare i contenuti disponibili sul sito o attraverso di esso; non ha il proposito di modificare o espandere le proprie funzioni, né le modifica o espande. L'accesso e l'utilizzo sono sempre soggetti a: (i) Termini e condizioni; (ii) Avvertenza sui rischi e (iii) Disclaimer completo. Tali contenuti sono perciò forniti a scopo puramente informativo. Nello specifico, ti preghiamo di considerare che i contenuti del nostro servizio di trading online non rappresentano un sollecito né un'offerta ad operare sui mercati finanziari. Il trading su qualsiasi mercato finanziario comporta un notevole livello di rischio per il tuo capitale.
Tutto il materiale pubblicato sul nostro servizio di trading online è unicamente a scopo educativo e informativo, e non contiene (e non dovrebbe essere considerato come contenente) consigli e raccomandazioni di carattere finanziario, di trading o fiscale, né informazioni riguardanti i nostri prezzi di trading, offerte o solleciti riguardanti transazioni che possano coinvolgere strumenti finanziari, oppure promozioni finanziarie da te non richieste.
Tutti i contenuti di terze parti, oltre ai contenuti offerti da XM, siano essi opinioni, news, ricerca, analisi, prezzi, altre informazioni o link a siti di terzi presenti su questo sito, sono forniti "così com'è", e vanno considerati come commenti generali sui mercati; per questo motivo, non possono essere visti come consigli di investimento. Dato che tutti i contenuti sono intesi come ricerche di investimento, devi considerare e accettare che non sono stati preparati né creati seguendo i requisiti normativi pensati per promuovere l'indipendenza delle ricerche di investimento; per questo motivo, questi contenuti devono essere considerati come comunicazioni di marketing in base alle leggi e normative vigenti. Assicurati di avere letto e compreso pienamente la nostra Notifica sulla ricerca di investimento non indipendente e la nostra Informativa sul rischio riguardante le informazioni sopra citate; tali documenti sono consultabili qui.
