US soft landing hopes lift EM assets
By Jamie McGeever
Aug 19 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
The trading week gets underway in Asia on Monday, with investorsin pretty good spirits following last week's rebound in risk appetite as the fabled U.S. 'soft landing' comes back into view, a scenario that should bode well for Asian and emerging markets.
Emerging market equities posted their biggest weekly rise since April and world stocks their best week since October. The Nasdaq and S&P also had their best week since October, and the VIX 'fear index' of Wall Street volatility is back below 15.0.
Even Chinese stocks snapped a three-week losing streak to rebound from a six-month low. Although the bounce was a slender 0.4%, it is a move in the right direction as far as China bulls - and policymakers - are concerned.
But China's economic numbers remain weak and continue to undershoot even economists' increasingly gloomy expectations. China's economic surprises index, which has been negative since June, last week fell to its lowest in almost a year.
U.S. data and expectations have also slumped in recent months, but there are signs of stabilization, and investors are cooling on bets that the Fed will be forced into delivering a jumbo-sized rate cut next month.
Traders have slashed the probability of a 50-basis point move to around 25% as the market turmoil from early this month has evaporated. If recession fears wane, riskier assets like stocks and emerging markets should benefit.
The recent strong rebounds in U.S. megacaps should also support Asian assets exposed to U.S. Big Tech - Nvidia shares are up 37% from their Aug.5 low, so Taiwan's TSMC and the Hang Seng tech index could be in line for further gains this week.
The Asian economic and policy calendar on Monday is light. Japanese machinery orders, Malaysian trade and Thai GDP figures are the main highlights.
Figures on Friday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, meanwhile, showed that currency speculators are now 'long' the Japanese yen for the first time since March 2021.
Since the first week of July when the dollar was at a 38-year high around 162.00 yen, CFTC funds have completely covered one of their biggest short yen positions on record and the Japanese currency has rallied around 10%.
These are seismic moves, but it's worth remembering what it took to trigger them - another bout of intervention from Tokyo, an interest rate hike and hawkish posture from the Bank of Japan, and a frenzy of safe-haven buying and carry trade unwinds following the global volatility shock earlier this month.
Last week's wave of 'risk on' sentiment that washed over global markets, however, put the brakes on that. Dollar/yen rose 0.7%, not a big move by recent standards, but the biggest rise since June.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Monday:
- Japan machinery orders (June)
- Malaysia trade (July)
- Thailand GDP (Q2)
Funds go 'long' yen for first time in 4 years https://tmsnrt.rs/4cAyXn8
China economic surprises index lowest in a year https://tmsnrt.rs/46Td29E
Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Diane Craft
Asset collegati
Ultime news
Disclaimer: le entità di XM Group forniscono servizi di sola esecuzione e accesso al nostro servizio di trading online, che permette all'individuo di visualizzare e/o utilizzare i contenuti disponibili sul sito o attraverso di esso; non ha il proposito di modificare o espandere le proprie funzioni, né le modifica o espande. L'accesso e l'utilizzo sono sempre soggetti a: (i) Termini e condizioni; (ii) Avvertenza sui rischi e (iii) Disclaimer completo. Tali contenuti sono perciò forniti a scopo puramente informativo. Nello specifico, ti preghiamo di considerare che i contenuti del nostro servizio di trading online non rappresentano un sollecito né un'offerta ad operare sui mercati finanziari. Il trading su qualsiasi mercato finanziario comporta un notevole livello di rischio per il tuo capitale.
Tutto il materiale pubblicato sul nostro servizio di trading online è unicamente a scopo educativo e informativo, e non contiene (e non dovrebbe essere considerato come contenente) consigli e raccomandazioni di carattere finanziario, di trading o fiscale, né informazioni riguardanti i nostri prezzi di trading, offerte o solleciti riguardanti transazioni che possano coinvolgere strumenti finanziari, oppure promozioni finanziarie da te non richieste.
Tutti i contenuti di terze parti, oltre ai contenuti offerti da XM, siano essi opinioni, news, ricerca, analisi, prezzi, altre informazioni o link a siti di terzi presenti su questo sito, sono forniti "così com'è", e vanno considerati come commenti generali sui mercati; per questo motivo, non possono essere visti come consigli di investimento. Dato che tutti i contenuti sono intesi come ricerche di investimento, devi considerare e accettare che non sono stati preparati né creati seguendo i requisiti normativi pensati per promuovere l'indipendenza delle ricerche di investimento; per questo motivo, questi contenuti devono essere considerati come comunicazioni di marketing in base alle leggi e normative vigenti. Assicurati di avere letto e compreso pienamente la nostra Notifica sulla ricerca di investimento non indipendente e la nostra Informativa sul rischio riguardante le informazioni sopra citate; tali documenti sono consultabili qui.
