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US natgas hits over two-month high on warmer weather, higher demand view



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By Rahul Paswan

Sept 17 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose to a more than two-month high on Tuesday, supported by higher demand forecasts for the next week and warmer weather outlook which could boost the amount of gas power generators burn.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.2 cents or 2.2% to $2.43 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:16 a.m. EDT (1416 GMT).

"We are seeing some heat in the near term, especially in Texas, and that is chasing the bears into the wings at least for now. The quiet tropics are also supportive as many models had anticipated significant demand destruction along the Atlantic coast which doesn’t appear to be manifesting," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 134 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks. The normal for this time of year is 94 CDDs. Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to rise from 100.0 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd next week.

"The explosion in Houston/Deer Park was on a line carrying NGLs and although there is other gas infrastructure in the immediate area which are under force majeure or pressure reductions, we do not see it as impactful to forward markets," Cunningham said.

A natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline owned by Energy Transfer ET.N caught fire in La Porte, Texas, on Monday morning, the company said in a statement, knocking out power to thousands of homes and businesses and prompting a widespread evacuation. The fire continues to burn itself out.

LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, at 101.9 bcfd this week to 102.2 bcfd next week. LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.

"Nearby futures are bumping up against resistance at the $2.42 level and are likely to push higher during the next couple of sessions as speculative shorts continue to exit or roll positions forward into the deferred contracts amid production slippage, steady LNG export activity, coal to gas switching and warmer than normal temperature forecasts into month’s end," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices on Tuesday morning traded slightly higher after hitting seven week lows the previous day when milder weather curbed demand. NG/EU

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Venture Global LNG signed a five-year deal with Gastrade SA to regasify up to 1 million metric tons of LNG in Greece for a five-year period beginning next year from two of its Louisiana export facilities, the company said on Tuesday.


Week ended Sep 13
Forecast

Week ended Sep 6
Actual

Year ago Sep 13

Five-year average

Sep 13


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

62

+40

+62

+80


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,449

3,387

3,251

3,171


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

8.8%

9.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.42

2.30

2.70

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.32

11.06

11.44

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.13

13.33

13.92

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

19

18

-

-

52

U.S. GFS CDDs

134

134

-

-

94

U.S. GFS TDDs

153

152

-

-

146

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.1

101.9

102.2

103.5

96.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.9

7.7

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

110.1

109.9

109.9

N/A

103.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.0

2.2

2.2

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

7.0

7.2

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

13.0

12.8

13.2

12.1

8.2

U.S. Commercial

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.9

U.S. Residential

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.9

U.S. Power Plant

39.4

40.2

40.1

42.1

36.0

U.S. Industrial

21.9

21.8

21.9

21.5

21.7

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

77.4

78.0

78.0

79.4

80.0

Total U.S. Demand

99.6

100.0

100.5

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

74

75

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

77

78

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Sep 20

Week ended Sep 13

2023

2022

2021

Wind

8

8

10

11

10

Solar

5

6

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

47

46

41

38

37

Coal

16

15

17

21

23

Nuclear

18

19

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.23

2.25


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.86

1.57


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.39

2.18


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.73

1.57


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.95

1.87


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.04

2.12


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.63

1.53


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.89

1.13




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.41

0.45



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

35

35.25



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

38

31.75



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

25

29.25


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

30.5

36.75




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

9.5

21


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

15.5

19.25




Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Louise Heavens

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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