China’s ammo export curb is more a green defence
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Updates to add graphic.
By Antony Currie
MELBOURNE, Aug 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) -Beijing's latest choice of critical mineral to put under export limits may at first blush appear to be old-school Realpolitik. Among other uses, antimony is a key ingredient for military and defence purposes, from nuclear weapons to night-vision goggles, as well as for more traditional uses like hardening bullets and tanks. China cited national security andnon-proliferation obligations as reasonsfor the move, butclimate change is at least as big a driver, too.
That's because silver-grey metalloid is also used in photovoltaic glass to improve the performance of solar panels. Production capacity in Chinafor these renewable energy generators grew to 1,000 gigawatts last year.
Much of that is for domestic use, with solar power output increasing 47% year-on-yearin the first half of this year, per the country's National Energy Administration, following a record 2023. As a result, the People's Republic is about to hit the goal it set four years ago of installing 1,200 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030. China also dominates solar panels globally, accounting for some 80% of the market.
Granted, there are concerns about overcapacity. But even at a less breakneck pace of solar panelproduction, the demand for antimony for photovoltaic glass will be high; Kang Dongsheng, chair of major state-owned miner Twinkling Star, last year predicted the sector would replace fire-retardant products as the biggest user, Fastmarkets reported.
Trouble is, antimonysupply has been shrinking. The People's Republic is the largest producer, accounting for almost half the elementdug up last year, per the U.S. Geological Survey. That 40,000 tons, though, is 55% less than China mined four years earlier - and almost 80% less than it extracted in 2008.
Tajikistan and, until recently, Russia, picked up some of the slack. But global production is half what it was in 2019. The price of antimony has quintupled since then, doubling this year alone. New supply looks a way off: U.S.-listed Perpetua Resources PPTA.O, for example, has a new mine planned for 2028.
The restrictions, which require exporters to apply for licences to sell to buyers that may have dual military and civilian uses for the product, will probably reduce Chinese exports overall. That will stoke fears that Beijing is using its market heft to retaliate against what it sees asunfair trade practices on the country. But the latest move is very much a way to defend China's green offensive.
Follow @AntonyMCurrie on X
CONTEXT NEWS
China willimpose export limits on antimony and related elements on national security grounds, the country's commerce ministry said on Aug. 15. Antimony is a metal used in everything from ammunition to fire-retardant products to, increasingly, batteries and solar panels.
Starting Sept. 15, exporters must apply for licences for dual-use items and technologies - those with potential military as well as civilian applications, a process that typically takes two to three months in China. The rules also prohibit the export of gold-antimony smelting and separation technology without permission.
The People's Republic accounted for 48% of antimony mined globally in 2023. The country's reserves of 640,000 tons are also the highest, representing around 32% of the total, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Graphic: Antimony price surged as supply shrank https://reut.rs/3WNXAXL
Graphic: China dominates antimony production https://reut.rs/4fPUbAb
Editing by Robyn Mak and Aditya Srivastav
Ultime news
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