U.S. stock futures mixed, little changed, after mixed CPI data
Dow, S&P 500 futures slightly red, Nasdaq 100 edges up
Aug CPI MM in-line with estimate, YY < estimate
Aug core CPI MM > estimate, YY in-line with estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.4%
Dollar edges up; gold dips; bitcoin down ~1%; crude gains ~2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.68%
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U.S. STOCK FUTURES MIXED, LITTLE CHANGED, AFTER MIXED CPI DATA
U.S. equity index futures are mixed while showing just modest changes after the release of the latest data on U.S. consumer prices. E-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are down around 0.1% which is roughly flat with where they were just before the numbers came out.
The August headline CPI reading on a month-over-month basis was in-line with the estimate. The year-over-year print was cooler than expected. The month-over-month core read was hotter than expected, while the year-over-year core print was in-line with the Reuters Poll:
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the FOMC cuts rates 25 basis points at its September 17-18 policy meeting now stands at 85% from 71% just before the data came out. There is now around a 15% chance the Fed slashes rates by 50 basis points vs around 29% just before the numbers were released.
In any event, looking further out into 2024, the bias in December is now for rates to be in the 4.25%-4.50% vs the current target rate of 5.25%-5.50%. The bias for December was for rates to be in 4.00%-4.25% area.
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield US10YT=RR is now around 3.68% vs 3.62% just before the data was released. The yield ended at 3.644% on Wednesday.
A majority of S&P 500 sector SPDR ETFs are lower ahead of the open. Real estate XLRE.P, off around 0.8%, is taking the biggest hit. Tech XLK.P, up 0.7%, is posting the biggest rise.
The KBW regional banking ETF KRE.P is down around 0.6%.
Regarding the data, Michael Lorizio, senior fixed income trader at Manulife Investment Management, in Boston, said:
"The market has 'repriced' some of the immediate expectations for rate cuts down a little bit lower… But overall I don't know if it's going to change a tremendous amount for the Fed, other than just to kind of solidify that 25 is probably the appropriate vote.”
Lorizio added “This is an outlier, but still in the trajectory, and if you really take a step back and see the type of progress that the economy has made and the Fed has made with this tighter policy, this is really just a kind of a slowdown from what we've seen in the past couple of months, but materially better than what we saw to start the year for sure and we are still trending in the correct way.”
..."I think the longer run forecast for the future path of Fed policy hasn't really been changed a whole lot.”
Here is a premarket snapshot from shortly after 0900 EDT (1300 GMT):
(Terence Gabriel, Karen Brettell)
*****
FOR WEDNESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
GRADUAL RE-RATING POSSIBLE FOR "CHEAP" EURO ZONE BANKS - BERENBERG - CLICK HERE
UNICREDIT & COMMERZ: AN $80 BLN BANK SEEN FROM THE SELLSIDE - CLICK HERE
GERMAN STOCKS BREAK FREE FROM THE ECONOMY - GS - CLICK HERE
MINING AND RETAIL LIFT STOXX - CLICK HERE
STOXX EYES STRONG START - CLICK HERE
MARKETS TRY TO SHAKE IT OFF AFTER US PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE - CLICK HERE
LMCPI09112024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3ziFKV1
premarket09112024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3XCVsUa
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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