XM non fornisce servizi ai residenti degli Stati Uniti d'America.

US natgas prices ease on rising output, lower LNG feedgas



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>UPDATE 1-US natgas prices ease on rising output, lower LNG feedgas</title></head><body>

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

July 10 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Wednesday on recent increases in output, a drop in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants after Freeport LNG in Texas shut for Hurricane Beryl and a tremendous surplus of gas in storage for this time of year.

That price decline was limited by forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected as a brutal heat wave will continue to blanket much of the country through at least late July, stoking demand for air conditioning and forcing power generators to burn more gas.

Analysts said gas stockpiles were about 18% above normal levels. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

One factor depressing power demand this week was the roughly 1.6 million homes and businesses still without power in Texas on Wednesday in the wake of Hurricane Beryl.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.5 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $2.329 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), keeping the contract in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Several producers cut output after prices fell to a 3-1/2-year low in February and March. A price recovery in April and May, however, prompted some producers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to start pulling more gas out of the ground. On a daily basis, output hit a 17-week high of 103.0 bcfd on Sunday.

EQT is the nation's biggest gas producer, and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest after its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 25.

With hotter weather expected next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 106.1 bcfd this week to 107.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 12.2 bcfd so far in July after Freeport LNG in Texas shut ahead of Hurricane Beryl on Sunday, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Sources told Reuters that Freeport LNG would likely restart by Thursday.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

With worries about Hurricane Beryl receding, gas prices fell to a seven-week low of around $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and a three-week low of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

Week ended July 5 Forecast

Week ended June 28 Actual

Year ago July 5

Five-year average

July 5


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+55

+32

+57

+57


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,189

3,134

2,915

2,695


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

18.3%

18.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.38

2.34

2.64

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

9.99

9.85

9.58

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.37

12.39

11.44

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

3

3

3

3

3

U.S. GFS CDDs

261

267

226

211

204

U.S. GFS TDDs

264

270

229

214

207

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.0

103.5

102.2

102.1

95.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.l

8.2

7.3

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

110.0

110.5

109.5

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.7

1.3

1.3

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.6

6.8

6.8

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

12.4

11.7

11.8

13.0

8.6

U.S. Commercial

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.5

U.S. Residential

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

U.S. Power Plant

41.9

49.5

50.0

44.5

43.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.6

21.7

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.1

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

78.5

86.4

87.1

81.3

79.9

Total U.S. Demand

99.1

106.1

107.0

N/A

96.9

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

75

75

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

78

78

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jul 12

Week ended Jul 5

2023

2022

2021

Wind

5

9

10

11

10

Solar

5

6

4

3

3

Hydro

6

6

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

47

43

41

38

37

Coal

18

17

17

21

23

Nuclear

17

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.42

2.10


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.96

2.01


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.18

2.49


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.60

1.61


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.92

1.89


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.09

2.08


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.74

1.92


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.91

0.92




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.75

0.53



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

123.00

79.50



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

98.75

102.75



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

28.25

30.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

102.67

152.50




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

129.00

72.25


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

112.00

69.50




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio and Josie Kao

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
</body></html>

Disclaimer: le entità di XM Group forniscono servizi di sola esecuzione e accesso al nostro servizio di trading online, che permette all'individuo di visualizzare e/o utilizzare i contenuti disponibili sul sito o attraverso di esso; non ha il proposito di modificare o espandere le proprie funzioni, né le modifica o espande. L'accesso e l'utilizzo sono sempre soggetti a: (i) Termini e condizioni; (ii) Avvertenza sui rischi e (iii) Disclaimer completo. Tali contenuti sono perciò forniti a scopo puramente informativo. Nello specifico, ti preghiamo di considerare che i contenuti del nostro servizio di trading online non rappresentano un sollecito né un'offerta ad operare sui mercati finanziari. Il trading su qualsiasi mercato finanziario comporta un notevole livello di rischio per il tuo capitale.

Tutto il materiale pubblicato sul nostro servizio di trading online è unicamente a scopo educativo e informativo, e non contiene (e non dovrebbe essere considerato come contenente) consigli e raccomandazioni di carattere finanziario, di trading o fiscale, né informazioni riguardanti i nostri prezzi di trading, offerte o solleciti riguardanti transazioni che possano coinvolgere strumenti finanziari, oppure promozioni finanziarie da te non richieste.

Tutti i contenuti di terze parti, oltre ai contenuti offerti da XM, siano essi opinioni, news, ricerca, analisi, prezzi, altre informazioni o link a siti di terzi presenti su questo sito, sono forniti "così com'è", e vanno considerati come commenti generali sui mercati; per questo motivo, non possono essere visti come consigli di investimento. Dato che tutti i contenuti sono intesi come ricerche di investimento, devi considerare e accettare che non sono stati preparati né creati seguendo i requisiti normativi pensati per promuovere l'indipendenza delle ricerche di investimento; per questo motivo, questi contenuti devono essere considerati come comunicazioni di marketing in base alle leggi e normative vigenti. Assicurati di avere letto e compreso pienamente la nostra Notifica sulla ricerca di investimento non indipendente e la nostra Informativa sul rischio riguardante le informazioni sopra citate; tali documenti sono consultabili qui.

Avvertenza sul rischio: Il tuo capitale è a rischio. I prodotti con leva finanziaria possono non essere adatti a tutti. Ti chiediamo di consultare attentamente la nostra Informativa sul rischio.