UK pay growth slows but remains high for Bank of England
Jobs market may be cooling too slowly for BoE to cut rates in Aug
Pay growth, excluding bonuses, eases to 5.7% as expected
Investors assign 1-in-3 chance of BoE rate cut on Aug. 1
ONS delays switchover to new Transformed Labour Force Survey
Adds details and background throughout
By William Schomberg and Andy Bruce
LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) -Growth in wages in Britain slowed but remains at levels that would normally be too high for the Bank of England to keep inflation at its 2% target, adding to doubts about the possibility of an interest rate cut in two weeks' time.
Earnings excluding bonuses - a key gauge of inflation pressure for the BoE - grew by 5.7% in the three months to the end of May compared with a year earlier, official data showed.
That represented the slowest growth in core pay since the summer of 2022 when employers scrambled to increase salaries to hire and retain staff amid a shortage of candidates.
Sterling and British interest rates futures were little changed after the data was published.
"A modest slowing in pay growth offers some good news for those looking for a rate cut in August," Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, said.
"But with annual pay growth excluding bonuses at 5.7%, the Bank of England may be unwilling to risk an August cut in rates before the labour market has cooled sufficiently."
Total earnings, including bonuses, also grew by 5.7% over the period.
Both readings were in line with the median forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists.
In the three months to April, regular pay had risen by an annual 6.0% and total earnings were up by 5.9%.
The BoE is due to make its next rates announcement on Aug. 1. After stronger-than-expected inflation data published on Wednesday, investors priced a roughly one-in-three chance of a first cut since 2020.
The Office for National Statistics also said on Thursday it was delaying the switch to a new version of its Labour Force Survey which had been due to take place in September.
The new version of the survey is designed to counter falling response rates for the current survey.
The ONS said the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) was attracting more respondents but showed a bias towards older people who were more likely to complete the online survey. Partial responses were another problem, it added.
"While we further develop the TLFS, we will continue to use the LFS as our lead measure of the labour market," the ONS said, adding that it would report back in early 2025 on its progress.
The survey is the source of employment, unemployment and inactivity data and its problems have made the job of measuring the inflationary heat in the labour market more complicated for the BoE.
Headline wage and vacancies data come from separate surveys of businesses.
Thursday's data showed some further signs of a cooling in Britain's labour market with vacancies dipping by 30,000 in the April-to-June period, the 24th consecutive fall although they remained almost 12% higher than before the COVID pandemic.
The unemployment rate - based on the LFS survey that is being phased out held at 4.4%.
Reporting by William Schomberg; Editing by Kate Holton and Tomasz Janowski
Ultime news
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