Dollar recovers as traders scale back bets of big Fed rate cut
Dollar firms against yen after four-day decline
Investors focus on upcoming U.S. CPI, ECB decision
Pound slides to over two-week low
Updated at 1150 GMT
By Rae Wee and Sruthi Shankar
Sept 9 (Reuters) -The dollar rallied against the yen and other major currencies on Monday as investors looked ahead to U.S. inflation data after Friday's mixed payrolls report sparked uncertainty about the size of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
The yen JPY=EBS weakened more than 1% to 143.56 per dollar, retreating from a one-month high of 141.75 touched last week when concerns about the U.S. economy boosted demand for safe haven assets.
The Swiss franc CHF=EBS, also considered a safe haven currency, dropped 0.7% to 0.8489 per dollar. It touched an eight-month high versus the dollar on Friday.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar =USD edged up 0.41% to 101.61.
Focus turned to Wednesday's U.S. inflation report as the next indicator that could shape expectations for the outcome of the Fed's September meeting.
Friday's highly anticipated U.S. jobs data failed to offer clarity on the question of whether the Fed would deliver a regular 25 basis point rate cut or an outsized 50 bps one at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting.
While employment increased less than expected in August, the jobless rate ticked lower and wage growth remained solid, indicating that the U.S. labour market was cooling, but not at a pace that warranted panic over the economy's growth outlook.
"The initial relief rally for the U.S. dollar has been driven by the paring back of expectations for the Fed to deliver larger 50 bps rate cut at the next policy meeting," MUFG strategist Lee Hardman said.
Markets fully price in a 25 bps rate cut next week and a roughly 25% chance FEDWATCH of a bigger, half-point move. On Friday, pricing for a big cut was as high as 50%.
Fed policymakers on Friday signalled they are ready to kick off a series of rate cuts, noting a cooling in the labour market that could accelerate into something more dire in the absence of a policy shift.
ECB PATH CLEARER
The euro EUR=EBS slipped 0.4% to $1.10428 against the dollar ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank's policy meeting. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.50%, having kicked off its rate cutting cycle in June with a quarter-point cut.
Traders price in a 52% chance of a similar move in December.
"The ECB path is much clearer than the Fed, having already started its rate cutting cycle," said Mohit Kumar, chief economist Europe at Jefferies.
"We expect the ECB to cut at a gradual pace of 25 bps a quarter for the coming meetings, data dependent, and move its rates below 3%."
The British pound GBP=D3 eased 0.3% to a more than two-week low of $1.3087 ahead of a slew of economic data this week that could shape expectations around the Bank of England's policy moves this year.
The Norwegian crown NOK=D3 touched a four-week low against the dollar at 10.81, while the Swedish crown SEK=D3 fell to a three-week low of 10.37 crowns per dollar.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Sruthi Shankar in London; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Jacqueline Wong, Alison Williams and Christina Fincher
Asset collegati
Ultime news
Disclaimer: le entità di XM Group forniscono servizi di sola esecuzione e accesso al nostro servizio di trading online, che permette all'individuo di visualizzare e/o utilizzare i contenuti disponibili sul sito o attraverso di esso; non ha il proposito di modificare o espandere le proprie funzioni, né le modifica o espande. L'accesso e l'utilizzo sono sempre soggetti a: (i) Termini e condizioni; (ii) Avvertenza sui rischi e (iii) Disclaimer completo. Tali contenuti sono perciò forniti a scopo puramente informativo. Nello specifico, ti preghiamo di considerare che i contenuti del nostro servizio di trading online non rappresentano un sollecito né un'offerta ad operare sui mercati finanziari. Il trading su qualsiasi mercato finanziario comporta un notevole livello di rischio per il tuo capitale.
Tutto il materiale pubblicato sul nostro servizio di trading online è unicamente a scopo educativo e informativo, e non contiene (e non dovrebbe essere considerato come contenente) consigli e raccomandazioni di carattere finanziario, di trading o fiscale, né informazioni riguardanti i nostri prezzi di trading, offerte o solleciti riguardanti transazioni che possano coinvolgere strumenti finanziari, oppure promozioni finanziarie da te non richieste.
Tutti i contenuti di terze parti, oltre ai contenuti offerti da XM, siano essi opinioni, news, ricerca, analisi, prezzi, altre informazioni o link a siti di terzi presenti su questo sito, sono forniti "così com'è", e vanno considerati come commenti generali sui mercati; per questo motivo, non possono essere visti come consigli di investimento. Dato che tutti i contenuti sono intesi come ricerche di investimento, devi considerare e accettare che non sono stati preparati né creati seguendo i requisiti normativi pensati per promuovere l'indipendenza delle ricerche di investimento; per questo motivo, questi contenuti devono essere considerati come comunicazioni di marketing in base alle leggi e normative vigenti. Assicurati di avere letto e compreso pienamente la nostra Notifica sulla ricerca di investimento non indipendente e la nostra Informativa sul rischio riguardante le informazioni sopra citate; tali documenti sono consultabili qui.
