BOJ to forgo another rate hike by year-end, say slim majority of economists
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=JPGDPQP GDP poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=JPCPIQP core CPI poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=JPONCQP BOJ overnight call rate poll data
By Satoshi Sugiyama
TOKYO, Oct 15 (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will forgo raising interest rates again this year, according to a very slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll, although nearly 90% still expect rates to rise by end-March.
The findings, published Tuesday, underscore the BOJ's challenge in proceeding with policy normalisation when most of its global peers are tilting towards rate cuts and amid uncertainty over the new political leadership's preference for monetary settings.
Just over half of economists, 25 of 49, in the Oct. 3-11 poll said the BOJ would stick to the current 0.25% rate through end-December. That was also the median forecast, down from 0.50%.
Results in the previous poll in September were also close, with 46% expecting no change.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took office on Oct. 1, moved markets the next day when he said the economy was not ready for further rate hikes. That was an apparent about-face from his previous support for the BOJ in its early stages of unwinding decades of extreme monetary stimulus.
"It's difficult for the Bank of Japan to boldly ignore the prime minister's personal opinion," said Chiyuki Takamatsu, chief economist at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance.
Still, 87% of economists, or 39 of 45, said the BOJ would raise rates to 0.50% by end-March. Another three who had predicted a rate hike to 0.50% by year-end expected the rate to be 0.75% by the end of the first quarter.
"It's unlikely the BOJ will raise interest rates again after the lower house election and before the budget for the next fiscal year is drawn up in late December," said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities.
"There is also a growing momentum for wage increases next year, and if the U.S. economy continues to be resilient, we believe the conditions for a rate hike will be in place by the time the BOJ's quarterly outlook report is released in January."
Iwashita said the BOJ could push back its decision to March if it wants to see the feasibility of the new U.S. administration's policy and the situation in the annual springtime wage negotiations.
Among a smaller sample of 18 economists who predicted higher rates by year-end and who also provided a forecast for a specific month when the BOJ will next move, only one did not forecast December.
Of another 19 economists who provided monthly forecasts and anticipated either a rate hike next year or no further increase at all, almost three-quarters, or 14, chose January. That was up from 60% in September's poll.
The BOJ ended negative rates in March and raised short-term borrowing costs to 0.25% in July on the view Japan was making progress towards durably achieving 2% inflation.
Japan's economy expanded an annualised 2.9% in the second quarter as steady wage hikes underpinned consumer spending.
Capital expenditure continues to grow, though soft demand in China and slowing U.S. growth indicate a solid recovery for the export-reliant country could be some way off.
Close to three-quarters of economists surveyed, 21 of 29, said it was too early to make a judgement on Ishiba's economic policy.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Polling by Rahul Trivedi and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley and Sam Holmes
Ultime news
Disclaimer: le entità di XM Group forniscono servizi di sola esecuzione e accesso al nostro servizio di trading online, che permette all'individuo di visualizzare e/o utilizzare i contenuti disponibili sul sito o attraverso di esso; non ha il proposito di modificare o espandere le proprie funzioni, né le modifica o espande. L'accesso e l'utilizzo sono sempre soggetti a: (i) Termini e condizioni; (ii) Avvertenza sui rischi e (iii) Disclaimer completo. Tali contenuti sono perciò forniti a scopo puramente informativo. Nello specifico, ti preghiamo di considerare che i contenuti del nostro servizio di trading online non rappresentano un sollecito né un'offerta ad operare sui mercati finanziari. Il trading su qualsiasi mercato finanziario comporta un notevole livello di rischio per il tuo capitale.
Tutto il materiale pubblicato sul nostro servizio di trading online è unicamente a scopo educativo e informativo, e non contiene (e non dovrebbe essere considerato come contenente) consigli e raccomandazioni di carattere finanziario, di trading o fiscale, né informazioni riguardanti i nostri prezzi di trading, offerte o solleciti riguardanti transazioni che possano coinvolgere strumenti finanziari, oppure promozioni finanziarie da te non richieste.
Tutti i contenuti di terze parti, oltre ai contenuti offerti da XM, siano essi opinioni, news, ricerca, analisi, prezzi, altre informazioni o link a siti di terzi presenti su questo sito, sono forniti "così com'è", e vanno considerati come commenti generali sui mercati; per questo motivo, non possono essere visti come consigli di investimento. Dato che tutti i contenuti sono intesi come ricerche di investimento, devi considerare e accettare che non sono stati preparati né creati seguendo i requisiti normativi pensati per promuovere l'indipendenza delle ricerche di investimento; per questo motivo, questi contenuti devono essere considerati come comunicazioni di marketing in base alle leggi e normative vigenti. Assicurati di avere letto e compreso pienamente la nostra Notifica sulla ricerca di investimento non indipendente e la nostra Informativa sul rischio riguardante le informazioni sopra citate; tali documenti sono consultabili qui.
