• USDCAD is rangebound in the past few sessions

• The 200-day SMA caps the pair’s downside

• Momentum indicators are negatively tilted

USDCAD had been hovering around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the past two months, appearing incapable of clearing this hurdle. This repeated inability triggered a decisive break below the 50-day SMA on July 3, with the pair trading undecided since then, supported by the 200-day SMA.

Should the bears continue to apply downside pressures, the pair might challenge the recent support of 1.3588, which overlaps with the 200-day SMA and also held strong in May. Lower, the spotlight could turn to 1.3543, a region that acted both as support and resistance from January since April 2024. A break below that level could set the stage for the April low of 1.3476.

On the flipside, if pair reverses higher, the recent resistance of 1.3653 could act as the first line of defense. Conquering that barricade, the bulls could attack the July high of 1.3753. Further advances could then come to a halt at 1.3784, which curbed the pair’s upside both in May and June.

In brief, USDCAD has been stuck in a tight range in the past few sessions, unable to adopt a clear directional trajectory. Therefore, a break above or below that range is likely to be followed by a strong move in the same direction.