US natgas prices climb 3% on output decline, higher demand forecasts
Adds closing prices, analyst quote
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 6 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Wednesday on a drop in daily output so far this month due to pipeline issues and the evacuation of some oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Rafael, and on forecasts for slightly cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.7 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $2.747 per million British thermal units.
Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, capping a remarkable comeback four years after he was voted out of the White House.
"President Trump’s return to the White House will reverberate across the natural gas sector, with predominant impacts on the demand side via lifting the moratorium on new LNG export approvals, and a slower energy transition improving long-term power sector gas demand," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics said in a note.
"The natural gas supply curve could also shift outward, with an eventual more gas-friendly FERC (U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) likely to speed gas infrastructure with lesser consideration of environmental impacts," EBW added.
In its latest forecast, theU.S. National Hurricane Center saidRafael would crash acrossCuba later Wednesday as it moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico. By Sunday, Rafaelis expected to weaken into a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico.
It is no longer certain whether the storm will reach land along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Earlier, the NHC expected Rafael to hit Texas or Louisiana early next week.
Hurricanes can boost gas prices by cutting output, although only about 2% of the nation's gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico area. But hurricanes can also reduce prices by destroying demand for gas through power outages and knocking liquefied natural gas export plants out of service. Some storms do both.
About 7% of U.S. gas production from the Gulf of Mexico was shut in due to Rafael, according to the U.S.Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 100.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compared with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output over the past four days was on track to drop by around 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary nine-month low of 98.9 bcfd on Wednesday. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
In addition to curtailments for Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico, the daily output decline was also related to a few force majeures and reductions on Kinder Morgan's El Paso pipe in New Mexico over the past couple of days, and maintenance on Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway pipe in Texas.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 100.9 bcfd this week to 102.4 bcfd next week.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 12.3 bcfd so far in November, down from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Week ended Nov 1 Forecast | Week ended Oct 25 Actual | Year ago Nov 1 | Five-year average Nov 1 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +62 | +78 | +19 | +32 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,925 | 3,863 | 3,775 | 3,717 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 5.6% | 4.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.71 | 2.67 | 3.06 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.34 | 12.93 | 14.45 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.54 | 13.48 | 17.02 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 183 | 164 | 193 | 254 | 267 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 29 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 13 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 212 | 193 | 211 | 270 | 280 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 100.1 | 101.0 | 104.3 | 98.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 8.3 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.4 | 109.3 | 108.8 | N/A | 105.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 | N/A | 5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.3 | 12.4 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 11.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 7.2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 11.5 |
U.S. Residential | 8.7 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 16.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.0 | 32.2 | 31.1 | 28.7 | 28.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.5 | 22.7 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 24.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.6 | 80.5 | 80.3 | 79.1 | 90.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.0 | 100.9 | 102.4 | N/A | 109.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 98 | 95 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 92 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 93 | 92 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 8 | Week ended Nov 1 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 14 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 42 | 42 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 14 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.62 | 1.35 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.45 | 1.11 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.37 | 1.89 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.39 | 1.09 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.58 | 1.15 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.54 | 1.29 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.25 | 1.49 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -1.47 | -2.65 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.85 | 0.55 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.75 | 42.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 44.00 | 33.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 21.75 | 31.70 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 27.75 | 29.75 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 25.25 | 26.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 24.25 | 25.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Bernadette Baum and Leslie Adler
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
संबंधित परिसंपत्तियाँ
ताजातरीन समाचार
अस्वीकरण: XM Group के सत्व केवल निष्पादन वाली सेवा और हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा में पहुँच प्रदान करते हैं, ताकि व्यक्ति वेबसाइट पर या उसके जरिए उपलब्ध सामग्री को देख सके और/या उसका उपयोग कर सके। इसका प्रयोजन इसे बदलना या विस्तार देना नहीं है, न ही वह इसे बदलता या विस्तार देता है। इस तरह की पहुँच हमेशा ही निम्नलिखित के अधीन रहेगी: (1) नियम और शर्तें; (2) जोखिम चेतावनियाँ; और (3) पूर्ण अस्वीकरण। इसलिए ऐसी जानकारी सामान्य सूचना से अधिक कुछ भी नहीं है। विशेष रूप से, कृपया इससे अवगत रहें कि हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा की सामग्रियाँ न तो किसी चीज का अनुरोध करती हैं, न ही वित्तीय बाजारों में प्रवेश करने की पेशकश ही करती हैं। किसी भी वित्तीय बाजार में व्यापार करने के साथ आपकी पूँजी को उल्लेखनीय जोखिम है।
हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा में प्रकाशित सभी सामग्रियाँ शैक्षणिक/सूचनात्मक प्रयोजनों मात्र के लिए हैं, और इनमें वित्तीय, निवेश टैक्स या व्यापार सलाह और सुझाव नहीं हैं - न ही ऐसा समझना चाहिए कि इनमें ये सब हैं; न ही इनमें हमारी व्यापार कीमतों का अभिलेख है; न ही इनमें किसी वित्तीय उपकरण में लेन-देन करने का निमंत्रण या अनुरोध है; न ही ये आपको अवांछित वित्तयी प्रोमोशन पेश करती हैं।
इस वेबसाइट में मौजूद कोई भी तृतीय पक्षीय सामग्री, तथा XM द्वारा तैयार की गई सामग्रियाँ, जैसे: अभिप्राय, समाचार, अनुसंधान, विश्लेषण, कीमतें और अन्य सूचनाएँ या तृतीय पक्षों की साइटों के लिंक, "जैसा-है-वैसा" के आधार पर बाजार के बारे में सामान्य टिप्पणी के रूप में उपलब्ध कराई गई हैं, और वे निवेश हेतु सलाह नहीं हैं। जिस हद तक कीसी सामग्री को निवेश अनुसंधान मान लिया जाता है, उस हद तक आपको ध्यान में रखना होगा और इसे स्वीकार करना होगा कि वह सामग्री इस उद्देश्य से और निवेश अनुसंधान की स्वतंत्रता को बढ़ावा देने के लिए कानूनी आवश्यकताओं के मुताबिक, तैयार नहीं की गई है, और इसलिए उसे प्रासंगिक कानूनों और विनियमों के तहत विपणन संप्रेषण माना जाएगा। कृपया सुनिश्चित करें कि आपने गैर-आश्रित निवेश के बारे में हमारी सूचना को पढ़ और समझ लिया है। पीछे दी गई जानकारी के बारे में अनुसंधान और जोखिम चेतावनी यहाँ उपलब्ध है।
