US natgas prices edge up to 15-week high on weeks of low storage builds
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 30 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a 15-week high as reduced output so far this year has cut the amount of the fuel going into storage for the winter heating season.
Storage injections in July, August and so far in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997.
That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities earlier this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low.
Even though storage injections have been lower than usual in 19 of the past 20 weeks, the amount of gas in inventory was still about 6% above normal for this time of year due to relatively low heating demand during mild winter of 2023-2024. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.923 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 13.
That kept thefront-month in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time since May.
For the month, the contract was up about 37%, the most in a month since July 2022.
For the quarter, the front-month was up about 12% after jumping 48% last quarter.
Futures rose despitea small increase in output over the weekend and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
That small output increase came as some drillers restarted their Gulf of Mexico production now that Hurricane Helene passedthrough the area.
The decline in demand, meanwhile, was due in part to a reduction in the amount of gas power generators will likely need to burnwith over 1.9million homes and businesses still without power in the U.S. Southeast and Midwest after Helene battered the region late last week.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea had a 40% chance of strengthening into a cyclone as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the next week.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
The average output for September, however, was higher than seen last week as some Gulf of Mexico production returned to service.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 95.9 bcfd this week to 96.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants eased to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.
Week ended Sep 27 Actual | Week ended Sep 20 Actual | Year ago Sep 27 | Five-year average Sep 27 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +60 | +47 | +87 | +98 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,552 | 3,492 | 3,420 | 3,357 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 5.8% | 7.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.93 | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.68 | 12.47 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.21 | 13.19 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 50 | 51 | 65 | 77 | 94 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 94 | 97 | 75 | 75 | 61 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 144 | 148 | 130 | 152 | 155 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.8 | 102.2 | 102.2 | 102.3 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.4 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.7 | 109.9 | 109.6 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.3 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 40.2 | 37.2 | 35.6 | 35.4 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.9 | 22.1 | 21.7 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 78.1 | 75.3 | 74.9 | 73.4 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 98.5 | 95.9 | 96.6 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 4 | Week ended Sep 27 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 18 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.53 | 2.64 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.28 | 1.23 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.05 | 3.00 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.32 | 1.21 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.35 | 2.52 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.55 | 1.65 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.55 | 2.47 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.96 | 1.39 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.04 | 0.07 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 32.25 | 36.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 43.25 | 37.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 21.50 | 25.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 49.25 | 50.50 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 29.50 | 36.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 28.25 | 34.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Marguerita Choy
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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ताजातरीन समाचार
अस्वीकरण: XM Group के सत्व केवल निष्पादन वाली सेवा और हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा में पहुँच प्रदान करते हैं, ताकि व्यक्ति वेबसाइट पर या उसके जरिए उपलब्ध सामग्री को देख सके और/या उसका उपयोग कर सके। इसका प्रयोजन इसे बदलना या विस्तार देना नहीं है, न ही वह इसे बदलता या विस्तार देता है। इस तरह की पहुँच हमेशा ही निम्नलिखित के अधीन रहेगी: (1) नियम और शर्तें; (2) जोखिम चेतावनियाँ; और (3) पूर्ण अस्वीकरण। इसलिए ऐसी जानकारी सामान्य सूचना से अधिक कुछ भी नहीं है। विशेष रूप से, कृपया इससे अवगत रहें कि हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा की सामग्रियाँ न तो किसी चीज का अनुरोध करती हैं, न ही वित्तीय बाजारों में प्रवेश करने की पेशकश ही करती हैं। किसी भी वित्तीय बाजार में व्यापार करने के साथ आपकी पूँजी को उल्लेखनीय जोखिम है।
हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा में प्रकाशित सभी सामग्रियाँ शैक्षणिक/सूचनात्मक प्रयोजनों मात्र के लिए हैं, और इनमें वित्तीय, निवेश टैक्स या व्यापार सलाह और सुझाव नहीं हैं - न ही ऐसा समझना चाहिए कि इनमें ये सब हैं; न ही इनमें हमारी व्यापार कीमतों का अभिलेख है; न ही इनमें किसी वित्तीय उपकरण में लेन-देन करने का निमंत्रण या अनुरोध है; न ही ये आपको अवांछित वित्तयी प्रोमोशन पेश करती हैं।
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