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Gold’s astounding rally and the challenges ahead

Gold gains around 18% year-to-date But is it time for the uptrend to cool down a bit? Even if so, the broader outlook remains positive   Gold shines bright Gold had a great year-to-date performance, gaining around 18% and hitting a record high of 2450 on May 20. As discussed in previous reports, gold’s uptrend was fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank buying and strong consumer demand, especially in China, as well as expectations of lower borrowing costs, at
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ECB could disappoint expectations for a dovish shift – Preview

ECB meets with near zero chances for a rate cut ECB members continue to disagree about the rates outlook A dovish shift looks unlikely as the focus rests with the Fed Euro showing unexpected strength despite political unrest ECB meets but all eyes remain on the US The ECB is preparing for the last meeting before the summer lull with developments elsewhere making President Lagarde’s job even more challenging.
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Market Comment – Dollar recovers further on Trump boost

US dollar extends rebound as US yield curve steepens on Trump bets Dow Jones hits fresh record but global stocks slip on trade war fears Dovish Powell lifts sentiment, retail sales eyed next Dollar catches a bid on Trump trade A steepening US yield curve helped the US dollar to bounce back from last week’s post-CPI lows as growing bets that Donald Trump would get re-elected as President pushed long-dated yields higher while short-term yields fell on firming expectations that the
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Technical Analysis – Have USDJPY bulls lost the game?

USDJPY finds support near 158.00 after rapid downfall Short-term risk remains in the bearish zone; eyes on 155.00 level US retail sales due for release at 12:30 GMT   USDJPY set a strong foothold near its 50-day simple moving average at 157.90 after last week’s brutal exit out of the 161.00 territory. Note that the pair made a double top pattern near its 38-year high of 161.94 before descending, which typically indicates a bearish continuation.
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Technical Analysis – EURJPY pulls back from 32-year high

EURJPY jumped to its highest since January 1992 last week But corrected lower after suspected Japanese intervention Oscillators weaken but remain above neutral zones EURJPY has been in a steep uptrend since the beginning of the year, storming to consecutive multi-year highs. In the near term, the pair experienced a strong pullback following a suspected currency intervention from Japan last week but already seems on track to erase that latest downward spike.
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Higher market volatility led by yen, gold and equities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

EURUSD tests June's peak as ECB rate decision looms GBPUSD pauses impressive rally near 1.3000 ahead of CPI data Gold resumes weak momentum after closing above 2,400   US retail sales --> Gold It was a shocking weekend of a failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump, which caused a heated moment in the US political landscape.
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Bullish pound eyes $1.30 ahead of UK inflation test – Preview

June CPI numbers the highlight of this week’s UK data flurry Could the Bank of England cut interest rates next month? Pound undeterred as it extends July gains Job stats and retail sales to follow Wednesday’s CPI report (06:00 GMT) On target Inflation in the UK peaked much higher than in other major economies during the height of the energy crisis in 2022. Logic would therefore dictate that it would take longer to come down, and that is exactly what happened in 2023, to t
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Technical Analysis – Gold’s rally stalls at 7-week high

Gold jumped to its highest level since May 22 last week But fails to extend rally, trading flat in past couple of sessions Despite latest weakness, oscillators remain positively tilted Gold has been experiencing solid gains since late June, with the break above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and restrictive trendline brightening the short-term technical outlook.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD jumps to a fresh 1-month high

EURUSD edges higher after break above SMAs The pair advances to its highest level since June 4 Oscillators suggest that bullish forces are strengthening EURUSD has been in a steady uptrend after the bullish breakout from its downward sloping trendline in place since December 2023. Moreover, the pair conquered both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), surging to a fresh one-month peak on Friday.
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Market Comment – A confused market tries to find its footing

Dollar is steadier following the weekend’s events Chairman Powell speaks today as outlook becomes challenging Bitcoin benefits from developments and gold remains above $2,400 China’s CPC plenary starts today and could generate headlines Market digests the events of the weekend A numb start to the trading week as the market is digesting the weekend’s events regarding the US Presidential candidate Donald Trump.
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Bitcoin decouples from stocks amid supply overabundance – Crypto News

Bitcoin struggles as governments and Mt. Gox clients offload coins Ethereum under pressure after ETF launch is delayed Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks ebbs, weaker dollar aids Supply overhang rattles Bitcoin Supply overhang rattles Bitcoin The crypto market has not been in its best shape lately, with Bitcoin shedding a significant part of its 2024 rally and falling below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since October 2023. Clearly, there has be

A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD rallies to meet 6-month high near 0.6800

AUDUSD creates higher highs and higher lows Momentum oscillators show mixed signs AUDUSD skyrocketed to another fresh six-month high of 0.6797 on Thursday, creating the ninth consecutive green day. Since mid-April, the pair has been developing an upward trend. However, the technical oscillators show mixed signs. The stochastic is heading south, but the RSI is crossing the 70 level to the upside.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD trades sideways as 200-SMA provides support

USDCAD is rangebound in the past few sessions The 200-day SMA caps the pair’s downside Momentum indicators are negatively tilted USDCAD had been hovering around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the past two months, appearing incapable of clearing this hurdle. This repeated inability triggered a decisive break below the 50-day SMA on July 3, with the pair trading undecided since then, supported by the 200-day SMA.
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Technical Analysis – GBPJPY hits 20-day SMA after multi-year high

GBPJPY may start bearish correction Stochastics move down; RSI ticks up GBPJPY suffered significant losses following an aggressive rally to the multi-year high of 208.10. The pair found immediate support at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 203.80, keeping the bias bullish for now. Technically, the stochastic oscillator is div
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Market Comment – Weaker US CPI sends US stocks into a tailspin

Top US stocks fall despite the weaker CPI report Dollar suffers but euro/dollar fails to make significant gains Gold climbs above the $2,400 level again Yen benefits from dollar weakness and possible intervention The September Fed rate cut is a step closer  The US inflation report for June managed to produce a downside surprise.
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WTI futures pull back from 2-month high But meet strong support at 50.0% Fibonacci Momentum indicators ease but remain positive   WTI oil futures (August delivery) have been in a steady uptrend since early June, posting a fresh two-month high last week. Although the price experienced a pullback from its recent high, it quickly found support at 81.50, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 95.02-67.97 downleg.
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Technical Analysis – BTCUSD is held down by 200-day SMA

BTCUSD dropped to a fresh 4-month low last week Attempts for recovery hit a wall at 200-day SMA Oscillators improve slightly, but still negatively tilted BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has been experiencing a strong selloff since the beginning of June, retreating to its lowest level since February 27. Although the price managed to find its feet and attempted to recoup some losses, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) has been acting as an impenetrable ceiling.



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अस्वीकरण: XM Group के सत्व केवल निष्पादन वाली सेवा और हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा में पहुँच प्रदान करते हैं, ताकि व्यक्ति वेबसाइट पर या उसके जरिए उपलब्ध सामग्री को देख सके और/या उसका उपयोग कर सके। इसका प्रयोजन इसे बदलना या विस्तार देना नहीं है, न ही वह इसे बदलता या विस्तार देता है। इस तरह की पहुँच हमेशा ही निम्नलिखित के अधीन रहेगी: (1) नियम और शर्तें; (2) जोखिम चेतावनियाँ; और (3) पूर्ण अस्वीकरण। इसलिए ऐसी जानकारी सामान्य सूचना से अधिक कुछ भी नहीं है। विशेष रूप से, कृपया इससे अवगत रहें कि हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा की सामग्रियाँ न तो किसी चीज का अनुरोध करती हैं, न ही वित्तीय बाजारों में प्रवेश करने की पेशकश ही करती हैं। किसी भी वित्तीय बाजार में व्यापार करने के साथ आपकी पूँजी को उल्लेखनीय जोखिम है।

हमारी ऑनलाइन व्यापार सुविधा में प्रकाशित सभी सामग्रियाँ शैक्षणिक/सूचनात्मक प्रयोजनों मात्र के लिए हैं, और इनमें वित्तीय, निवेश टैक्स या व्यापार सलाह और सुझाव नहीं हैं - न ही ऐसा समझना चाहिए कि इनमें ये सब हैं; न ही इनमें हमारी व्यापार कीमतों का अभिलेख है; न ही इनमें किसी वित्तीय उपकरण में लेन-देन करने का निमंत्रण या अनुरोध है; न ही ये आपको अवांछित वित्तयी प्रोमोशन पेश करती हैं।

इस वेबसाइट में मौजूद कोई भी तृतीय पक्षीय सामग्री, तथा XM द्वारा तैयार की गई सामग्रियाँ, जैसे: अभिप्राय, समाचार, अनुसंधान, विश्लेषण, कीमतें और अन्य सूचनाएँ या तृतीय पक्षों की साइटों के लिंक, "जैसा-है-वैसा" के आधार पर बाजार के बारे में सामान्य टिप्पणी के रूप में उपलब्ध कराई गई हैं, और वे निवेश हेतु सलाह नहीं हैं। जिस हद तक कीसी सामग्री को निवेश अनुसंधान मान लिया जाता है, उस हद तक आपको ध्यान में रखना होगा और इसे स्वीकार करना होगा कि वह सामग्री इस उद्देश्य से और निवेश अनुसंधान की स्वतंत्रता को बढ़ावा देने के लिए कानूनी आवश्यकताओं के मुताबिक, तैयार नहीं की गई है, और इसलिए उसे प्रासंगिक कानूनों और विनियमों के तहत विपणन संप्रेषण माना जाएगा। कृपया सुनिश्चित करें कि आपने गैर-आश्रित निवेश के बारे में हमारी सूचना को पढ़ और समझ लिया है। पीछे दी गई जानकारी के बारे में अनुसंधान और जोखिम चेतावनी यहाँ उपलब्ध है।

जोखिम की चेतावनी: आपकी पूँजी जोखिम में है। लीवरेज वाले उत्पाद सबके उपयुक्त नहीं होते हैं। कृपया हमारे जोखिम खुलासे पर विचार करें।