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GOLD


Analyses XM

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

EURUSD tests June's peak as ECB rate decision looms GBPUSD pauses impressive rally near 1.3000 ahead of CPI data Gold resumes weak momentum after closing above 2,400   US retail sales --> Gold It was a shocking weekend of a failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump, which caused a heated moment in the US political landscape.
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Technical Analysis – Gold’s rally stalls at 7-week high

Gold jumped to its highest level since May 22 last week But fails to extend rally, trading flat in past couple of sessions Despite latest weakness, oscillators remain positively tilted Gold has been experiencing solid gains since late June, with the break above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and restrictive trendline brightening the short-term technical outlook.
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Market Comment – A confused market tries to find its footing

Dollar is steadier following the weekend’s events Chairman Powell speaks today as outlook becomes challenging Bitcoin benefits from developments and gold remains above $2,400 China’s CPC plenary starts today and could generate headlines Market digests the events of the weekend A numb start to the trading week as the market is digesting the weekend’s events regarding the US Presidential candidate Donald Trump.
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Market Comment – Weaker US CPI sends US stocks into a tailspin

Top US stocks fall despite the weaker CPI report Dollar suffers but euro/dollar fails to make significant gains Gold climbs above the $2,400 level again Yen benefits from dollar weakness and possible intervention The September Fed rate cut is a step closer  The US inflation report for June managed to produce a downside surprise.
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Market Comment – Wounded dollar awaits inflation numbers

Powell’s testimony dents the dollar US CPI data could deepen the wounds Pound gains as BoE’s Pill dampens August cut bets Wall Street at new highs, gold gains as well Dollar softens ahead of CPI data The US dollar drifted south against most of its major peers on Wednesday, gaining some ground only against the yen, the franc, and the kiwi.
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Technical Analysis – Is it time for gold to emerge above key resistance?

Gold trades higher, but withing a broader sideways range RSI and MACD imply strengthening upside momentum A break above 2388 could add to the bullish case A dip below 2340 may allow declines within the range Gold is moving higher today, after hitting support near the 2,450 zone yesterday. The precious metal is trading above the short-term uptrend line drawn from the low of June 26, but in the bigger picture, it remains within the sideways range that’s been containing most of
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Market Comment – Spotlight falls on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony

Dollar stays on the back foot ahead of Powell Euro gains ground after French vote Yen steady as BoJ discusses bond purchases Wall Street extends rally, gold pulls back Traders lock gaze on Powell’s testimony The dollar continued losing ground against most of its major counterparts on Monday, gaining somewhat only against the franc and the kiwi.
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Lower FX volatility as equities appear agitated – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election.
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Market Comment – Dollar slides on jobs data, Euro dips on French gridlock

US jobs data confirms bets of two Fed rate cuts Dollar slides ahead of Powell testimony, US CPI numbers Euro gaps down as French election results in hung parliament Wall Street at fresh records, gold jumps, oil pulls back US labor market shows signs of weakness The US dollar fell against all but one of its major counterparts on Friday, with the only exception being the Canadian dollar.
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Technical Analysis – Gold lacks clear direction in short term

Gold slows pace after rebound off neckline RSI and stochastics look overstretched Gold prices jumped higher, meeting the restrictive region of 2,370–2,390, which is also acting as the right shoulder pattern in the short-term picture. However, the technical oscillators and the current market price action suggest a downside reversal. The RSI is pointing downward above the neutral threshold of 50, whereas the stochastic is flattening in overbought territory.
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Market Comment – Spotlight on NFP as dollar sinks; pound unmoved by Labour landslide

Dollar slips further ahead of crucial US jobs report Pound marginally higher as Labour crush the Tories in UK election Equities set to end week on a high note, Bitcoin keeps slumping Stakes are high as markets brace for soft NFP After a bit of a wobble last week, stock markets around the world are back in bullish mode following the weak ISM surveys for both manufacturing and services that bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September.
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Midweek Technical Look – Gold, GBPUSD, EURUSD

Gold cheers on weaker business data, but a break above 2,368 is still needed GBPUSD retains positive momentum as the UK election kicks off; eyes on 1.2770 EURUSD resumes recovery mode; aims for a close above 200-SMA
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Technical Analysis – Gold retains positive attitude

Gold picks up steam towards a key resistance region ahead of US Independence day Short-term bias is positive, but an extension above 2,352 is necessary ISM services PMI, ADP employment, FOMC meeting minutes on the agenda     Gold bulls returned with stronger positive momentum on Wednesday and hit an almost two-week high of 2,287. This came after Fed chairman Powell acknowledged progress on inflation and as investors awaited a slew of US data before the 4th of July holiday break.
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Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April
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Technical Analysis – Gold battles with descending trendline

Gold trades back and forth in the past few sessions Price fails to claim 50-day SMA and restrictive trendline Momentum indicators are neutral-to-bullish Gold has been under pressure lately following its break below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Although the price managed to find its feet at the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud, it has failed to jump back above the downward sloping trendline drawn from the all-time high of 2,450. Should the latest weakness persist, the pr
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Technical Analysis - Gold rebounds from near the lower end of its range

Gold bulls step in from near key support zone RSI and MACD suggest momentum is turning positive Advances within the current sideways range may be possible A dip below 2,290 could invite the bears back into the game Gold is trading higher today, after hitting support slightly above 2,290 on Wednesday. That zone has been acting as a strong support barrier since April, and it can also be seen as the lower boundary of a sideways range that’s been containing most of the price acti
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Midweek Technical Look – Gold, GBPUSD, USDJPY

Gold at risk of a bearish trend reversal below 2,285 GBPUSD extends its negative trajectory; 200-EMA in focus USDJPY tests intervention risks above 160 ahead of core PCE inflation data
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Besides commodities, volatility is heightened across the board - Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past.
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Technical Analysis – Gold reverses back below 50-day SMA

Gold retreats after unsuccessful break above 50-day SMA The price extends its structure of lower highs Momentum indicators turn bearish Gold had been in a steady recovery from its recent one-month low, which led to the price closing above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) last Thursday. Despite the violation of that crucial hurdle, bullion reversed back lower after failing to jump above the upper end of the Ichimoku cloud.
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Technical Analysis – Gold flirts with upper Bollinger band

Gold consolidates within ascending channel 20- and 50-period SMA post bullish cross MACD and RSI head higher Gold prices have been developing within an upward sloping channel in the short-term view with strong resistance at 2,336 and the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at 2,345. The mid-level of the Bollinger band (20-period SMA) and the 50-period SMA posted a bullish crossover, and the technical oscillators are heading north.
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