Dollar dragged by 50 bps Fed cut wagers
Updates prices at 1105 GMT, adds graphic
LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) -The dollar hovered nearits lowest levels of the year on Tuesday, a day beforethe expected start to a U.S. easing cycle that markets are wagering maybegin with an outsized rate cut.
The euro EUR=EBS hovered around $1.1132, not far from the year's high of $1.1201.
The yen JPY=EBS eased to 140.71 aftera jaunt to the stronger side of 140 during holiday-thinnedtrade on Monday.
It has fallen the most this year so has the most room to rally on a dovish turn from the U.S. central bank. A sustained break of 140.00 would open the way to a low from last January at 127.215.
Fed funds futures 0#FF:have rallied to push the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to 65%,against 30% a week ago. The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing. FEDWATCH
"Any sign of weakness in (Tuesday's U.S. economic data) is only going to reinforce market speculation that there could be a 50 basis points move," Jane Foley, senior forex strategist at Rabobank, said.
August U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures are expected later on Tuesday, although all eyes are on the Fed's two-day meeting which concludes on Wednesday.
"Regardless of which of -25bps or -50bps the (Fed) goes with on Wednesday, we do think that the Fed's messaging will be 'dovish,'" Macquarie strategists said ina note to clients.
"The USD could weaken against the majors on a very dovish tone, even with a -25bp cut ... the largest losses, if any, are still likely to be experienced against the JPY," they said.
"That's because the contrast between central bank outlooks will remain starkest between the Fed and the BOJ, for the time being."
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy steady on Friday but signal that further interest rate hikes are coming, perhaps turning the next meeting in October into a live one.
Sterling GBP=D3 - the best performing G10 currency this year with a 3.9% rise on the dollar - has also led the charge against the dollar thanks to signs of resilience in Britain's economy and stickiness in inflation.
It broke above $1.32 on Monday, buying$1.32095 at 1105 GMT. The Bank of England is generally expected to leave rates on hold at 5% when it meets on Thursday, though markets have priced in a 39% chance of another cut. 0#BOEWATCH
The Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand NZD=D3 dollars bought $0.67555 and $0.6198 respectively after rallying through Monday, as traders focused more on the Fed rather than weekend signs of deepening trouble in China's sluggish economy.
Chinese markets are closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival break until Wednesday, though the yuan CNH=D3 was firm at 7.095 in offshore trade as it settles into a new range.
The U.S. dollar index =USD held at 100.7,not far from its 2024 low made last month at 100.51.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Dollar steady before Fed decision https://reut.rs/4eo7fLO
Reporting by Tom Westbrook and Linda Pasquini; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Jacqueline Wong, Louise Heavens and Andrew Heavens
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