US natgas rises over 2% on higher demand outlook, supply woes
By Rahul Paswan
Sept 16 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Monday, buoyed by forecasts for higher demand over the next week, while the market also factored in production cuts due to last week's storm.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.8 cents or 2.5% to $2.36 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:35 a.m. EDT (1435 GMT). Natural gas futures hit a two-month high in the previous session.
"We believe that the market is really going to be focused on the inventory this week as well as the weather going forward. If this market is going to find support, it's gonna need help from Mother Nature and you usually don't get a lot of that support in the shoulder season," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities added 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 6. That was lower compared with an injection of 50 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year average (2019-2023) increase of 67 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
"After Hurricane Francine, the productions been off for a while, but because it's shoulder season the market isn't as concerned, but it definitely should cut into our supply surplus," Flynn added.
Nearly a fifth of crude oil production and 28% of natural gas output in U.S. Gulf of Mexico federal waters remains offline in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine, the U.S. offshore energy regulator said on Sunday. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 15% of all domestic oil production and 2% of natural gas output, according to federal data.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices declined on higher forecast temperatures this week and supply outages easing. NG/EU
Meanwhile, the fifth cargo of liquefied natural gas from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 was picked up by a vessel managed by a company under U.S. sanctions, according to ship tracking data.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, rose from 99.6 bcfd last week to 100.2 bcfd this week and is seen rising to 100.9 bcfd next week.
LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, unchanged this and next week at 101.9 bcfd.
Week ended Sep 13 | Week ended Sep 6 | Year ago Sep 6 | Five-year average Sep 6 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | - | +40 | +50 | +67 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | - | 3,387 | 3,189 | 3,091 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | - | 9.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.30 | 2.37 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.06 | 11.49 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.33 | 13.69 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 18 | 15 | - | - | 50 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 134 | 141 | - | - | 96 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 152 | 156 | - | - | 146 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 101.9 | 101.9 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.1 | 109.7 | 109.6 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.0 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.4 | 40.3 | 40.4 | 42.1 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.4 | 78.2 | 78.4 | 79.4 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 100.2 | 100.9 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 75 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 20 | Week ended Sep 13 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 47 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.25 | 2.13 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.57 | 1.65 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.18 | 2.09 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.57 | 1.60 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.87 | 1.82 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.12 | 2.10 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.53 | 1.52 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.13 | -1.57 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.45 | 0.51 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 35.25 | 39.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 31.75 | 31.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 29.25 | 20.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 36.75 | 33.33 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 21 | 26.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 19.25 | 24.25 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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