US natgas prices ease to 4-week low on mild weather forecasts
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Oct 17 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased 1% to a four-week low onThursday on forecasts for mild weather over the next two weeks that should keep heating demand lower than normal for this time of year.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.0 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.347 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), theirlowest since Sept. 18.
That kept front-month in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row for the first time since July.
Prices fell despite forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected and last week's smaller-than-usual storage build that was in line with expectations.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 11.
That was in line with the 77-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 93 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 89 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
It was also the 13th week in a row that storage injections were smaller than the five-year normal.
That isbecause many producers reduced their drilling activities earlier this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then.
In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas to remain in negative territory for a second day in a row for Thursday and a record 38th time this year.
Until this week, Waha prices had remained in positive territory since mid-September, just after the Matterhorn pipeline from the Permian to the Houston area started receiving gas.
Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 1.
LSEG forecast that unseasonably warm weather would cause average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to slide from 98.1 bcfd this week to 96.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in October from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit an eight-month high of 14.3 bcfd on Wednesday.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Gas prices were trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU
Week ended Oct 11 Actual | Week ended Oct 4 Actual | Year ago Oct 11 | Five-year average Oct 11 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +76 | +82 | +93 | +89 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,705 | 3,629 | 3,598 | 3,542 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.6% | 5.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.37 | 2.37 | 3.15 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.67 | 12.57 | 14.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.47 | 13.61 | 16.30 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 115 | 130 | 106 | 137 | 168 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 37 | 33 | 45 | 44 | 31 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 152 | 163 | 151 | 181 | 199 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.3 | 101.5 | 101.3 | 103.7 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.3 | 109.7 | 108.7 | N/A | 103.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | N/A | 5.9 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.4 | 13.6 | 14.1 | 14.3 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.8 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 35.5 | 31.8 | 30.7 | 21.4 | 30.9 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.1 | 22.7 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 74.8 | 76.0 | 73.9 | 65.7 | 74.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 95.7 | 98.1 | 96.4 | N/A | 92.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 93 | 92 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 88 | 87 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 86 | 86 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 18 | Week ended Oct 11 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 44 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.21 | 2.37 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.19 | 2.05 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.21 | 4.30 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.74 | 1.86 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.06 | 2.06 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.11 | 2.25 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.40 | 2.31 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -0.05 | -0.81 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.04 | 0.96 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 43.75 | 45.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 43.25 | 49.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 14.50 | 18.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 38.00 | 38.06 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 29.00 | 32.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 28.00 | 30.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Ros Russell and Richard Chang
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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