US natgas prices climb 4% on forecasts for more heat, demand this week
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
June 24 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% on Monday on forecasts for more hot weather and cooling demand.
The price increase came despite a slow increase in output andforecasts for less hot weather and lower cooling demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.6 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $2.811 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed atits lowest levelsince June 4 for a secondday in a row.
Recent declines in the July contract boosted the premium of futures for August over July NGN24-Q24 to a record high - currently about 14cents per mmBtu - for a second day in a row.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Analysts said the production increase, which started in late May, was a sign that some drillers were slowly boosting output after a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Prices were also up about 5% so far in June.
On a daily basis, output hit a 10-week high of 99.6 bcfd on Sunday. So far in June, CEOs at EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O said their companies have started to boost output.
Overall, however, U.S. gas production was still down around 7% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake, delayed well completions and cut drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
Chesapeake is on track to overtake EQT as the biggest U.S. gas producer after Chesapeake completes its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 9 - just not as hot as previously forecast. LSEG forecast that heat would boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
With less heat expected next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 104.5 bcfd this week to 102.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.9 bcfd so far in June, the same as in May.
That remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing plant and pipeline maintenance at several Louisiana facilities, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass.
Week ended June 21 Forecast | Week ended June 14 Actual | Year ago June 21 | Five-year average June 21 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +47 | +71 | +81 | +85 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,092 | 3,045 | 2,783 | 2,569 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 20.4% | 22.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.72 | 2.71 | 2.47 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.68 | 10.64 | 10.32 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.47 | 12.60 | 10.61 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 245 | 250 | 202 | 192 | 185 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 251 | 255 | 206 | 198 | 191 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 98.8 | 99.4 | 99.5 | 102.3 | 94.7 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 106.8 | 106.9 | 106.7 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 8.5 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.4 | 46.0 | 43.7 | 40.6 | 36.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.4 | 83.1 | 80.4 | 77.0 | 73.6 |
Total U.S. Demand | 98.0 | 104.5 | 102.3 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 75 | 76 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 78 | 79 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 28 | Week ended Jun 21 | Week ended Jun 14 | Week ended Jun 7 | Week ended May 31 | |
Wind | 9 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Hydro | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 43 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 40 |
Coal | 18 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.44 | 2.39 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.15 | 2.25 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.27 | 2.11 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.07 | 2.00 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.21 | 2.17 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.20 | 3.35 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.00 | 1.77 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.22 | 0.73 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.52 | 0.62 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 36.75 | 48.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 56.75 | 72.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 31.25 | 33.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 48.61 | 1.56 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 35.75 | 29.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 38.00 | 27.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Sharon Singleton
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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