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US natgas prices climb 4% on forecasts for more heat, demand this week



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

June 24 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% on Monday on forecasts for more hot weather and cooling demand.

The price increase came despite a slow increase in output andforecasts for less hot weather and lower cooling demand next week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.6 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $2.811 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed atits lowest levelsince June 4 for a secondday in a row.

Recent declines in the July contract boosted the premium of futures for August over July NGN24-Q24 to a record high - currently about 14cents per mmBtu - for a second day in a row.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Analysts said the production increase, which started in late May, was a sign that some drillers were slowly boosting output after a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Prices were also up about 5% so far in June.

On a daily basis, output hit a 10-week high of 99.6 bcfd on Sunday. So far in June, CEOs at EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O said their companies have started to boost output.

Overall, however, U.S. gas production was still down around 7% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake, delayed well completions and cut drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

Chesapeake is on track to overtake EQT as the biggest U.S. gas producer after Chesapeake completes its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 9 - just not as hot as previously forecast. LSEG forecast that heat would boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

With less heat expected next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 104.5 bcfd this week to 102.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.9 bcfd so far in June, the same as in May.

That remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing plant and pipeline maintenance at several Louisiana facilities, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass.

Week ended June 21 Forecast

Week ended June 14 Actual

Year ago June 21

Five-year average

June 21


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+47

+71

+81

+85


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,092

3,045

2,783

2,569


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

20.4%

22.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.72

2.71

2.47

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.68

10.64

10.32

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.47

12.60

10.61

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

6

5

4

6

6

U.S. GFS CDDs

245

250

202

192

185

U.S. GFS TDDs

251

255

206

198

191

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

98.8

99.4

99.5

102.3

94.7

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.5

7.2

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

106.8

106.9

106.7

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.7

1.9

1.9

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

6.8

7.0

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

12.6

12.7

13.0

11.8

8.5

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.7

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

39.4

46.0

43.7

40.6

36.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.7

21.6

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

76.4

83.1

80.4

77.0

73.6

Total U.S. Demand

98.0

104.5

102.3

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

75

76

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

78

79

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 28

Week ended Jun 21

Week ended Jun 14

Week ended Jun 7

Week ended May 31

Wind

9

12

9

11

11

Solar

6

6

6

6

6

Hydro

9

6

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

43

40

41

41

40

Coal

18

18

16

15

14

Nuclear

17

17

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.44

2.39


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.15

2.25


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.27

2.11


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.07

2.00


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.21

2.17


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.20

3.35


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.00

1.77


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.22

0.73




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.52

0.62



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

36.75

48.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

56.75

72.00


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

31.25

33.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

48.61

1.56




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

35.75

29.25


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

38.00

27.50




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Sharon Singleton

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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