Rains may have come too late for Brazil's coffee
Coffee trees unable to recover for 2025 crop - say farmers, agronomists
Extreme dryness means fewer coffee cherries next year
Some traders still see chance of recovery if rains normalize
By Marcelo Teixeira and Maytaal Angel
NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) -Rain is falling across the coffee growing regions of top producer Brazil after one of the driest periods on record, but it may be too late for trees to fully recover before the new crop is harvested, say farmers and experts.
Coffee prices have repeatedly hit multi-year peaks over the past two years, driving up the cost to consumers worldwide and forcing some roasters to change blends and lower the quality of the coffee they sell.
Production problems in Brazil and Asia because of adverse climate conditions have meant supply has lagged demand for three years. If the next crop in Brazil comes in below potential, global supplies may again come in below demand.
"Next crop won't be big, we can already expect losses," said Alysson Fagundes, an agronomist at coffee research institution Fundacao Procafe in Minas Gerais, the top Brazilian coffee-growing state.
Farmers and agronomists in Brazil say the 2025 crop will be problematic even if the rains result in a good flowering in the coming weeks.
Procafe gathers data on the state of coffee fields in Minas Gerais. It said that at the end of September soils in the southern part of the state - the main coffee area - were lacking 250 millimeters (9.84 inches) of water when compared to ideal levels. That was the second largest oil moisture shortfall on record.
Coffee trees that have suffered from the dryness would have to use energy - once the rains return - to produce leaves, instead of fruits, according to agronomists. That means the chance of a good fruit load following the flowering is small.
"Trees lost too many leaves," said Jonas Ferraresso, an agronomist who advises coffee farms in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states.
"They will hardly have enough energy to develop fruits after the flowering."
Many farmers in the state of Sao Paulo opted to prune trees, because they were in such bad condition, coffee grower Osmar Junior told Reuters.
Farmers use the technique to stimulate the recovery of the plant, but that means the trees will not produce beans in the first year after pruning, only getting back to production in 2026, said the farmer.
"The crops are in the intensive care unit," Junior said. "Before they start producing, they will first need to be discharged from the hospital."
IRRIGATION FAILING
The historic Brazil drought hurt even farmers using irrigation systems, since many water streams went dry.
"I have irrigation, but I have no water," said grower Mario Alvarenga, who owns two farms in the Cerrado Mineiro region.
His system failed to collect water from a nearby stream.
"In some days I could use irrigation for a couple of hours... then it completely stopped working."
Alvarenga said he produced 10% less in 2024, and estimates a similar fall in production for 2025.
If precipitation returns to average levels from now on, the trees would bounce back, said some traders.
"Most people have reduced their crop forecasts for next year, but not by much," said a European coffee trader. "By all accounts it is still going to be a pretty decent crop," he added, although he still expects supply to lag demand next year.
Coffee trees are resilient and can recover if the climate is conducive, said another European analyst working for a large trade house.
"The trees look bad, so one can make some assumptions. But they can bounce back," he said.
Brazil Coffee Production https://reut.rs/3A2AchF
Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira in New York and Maytaal Angel in London; Editing by Simon Webb and Peter Graff
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.
