Dollar firm as investors await jobs data
Dollar had best monthly performance in 2 years
Market on tenterhooks for jobs data later
Sterling heads for longest string of weekly losses since 2018
Updates prices at 1140 GMT
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) -The dollar steadied on Friday, as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report, which could confirm the economy remains robust ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week.
October witnessed the dollar's best monthly performance in more than two years, boosted by investors lowering their expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls data closes out the week, with economists polled by Reuters estimating 113,000 jobs were added in October, although analysts say recent hurricanes could affect the number.
Headline figures could miss estimates as a result, although a sustained market reaction should be limited, said Sean Callow, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets.
Analysts said the unemployment rate, which they expect to be 4.1%, will be likely to give a better read on the labour market's overall health.
"So long as it remains below 4.3%, pricing for the Fed funds rate shouldn't change much from (a 25 basis point cut) next week and likely another 25bp in Dec," said Callow.
The dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was up 0.2% at 104.09. It rose 3.1% last month, the most since September 2022 and looks set to remain firm for now.
"I see the dollar supported over the coming weeks, even though we’ve got a rate cut next week. But that's priced in, so it would take a serious deterioration in economic data to see expectations of a December rate cut get fully priced in and the U.S. dollar fall lower," City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta said.
YEN SOFTENS
The yen gave up some of Thursday's gains, sliding 0.5% to 152.77, ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan and of a series of big risk events.
Less dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda following the central bank's decision to stand pat on Thursday had the currency off a three-month low of 152.885 hit earlier this week.
"We think the chances of a Dec. rate hike have somewhat increased after Gov. Ueda's press conference," Morgan Stanley MUFG economists Takeshi Yamaguchi and Masayuki Inui wrote in a report on Thursday.
Their base case remains for the BOJ to raise rates again in January to 0.5.
The Fed announces its policy decision two days after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.
Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain neck and neck in several polls, but some investors have been putting on trades betting Trump will win, lifting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
Trump's pledges to implement tax cuts, loosen financial regulations and raise tariffs are seen as inflationary and could slow the Fed in its policy easing path.
Elsewhere, China's manufacturing activity returned to growth in October as an expansion in orders led to a pickup in production growth, a private sector survey showed on Friday.
The offshore yuan traded down about 0.1% at 7.1272 per dollar CNH=D3, while the onshore yuan CNY=CFXS was 0.1% weaker at 7.222.
The euro traded shy of a two-week high against the dollar, having gained this week after data showed euro zone inflation accelerated more than expected in October and the German economy posted signs of growth. It was last down 0.19% at $1.0863.
Sterling GBP=D3 was up 0.1% at $1.2913, but was set for a fifth straight week of losses against the dollar.
This would be the longest such stretch since late 2018, following the release of the UK government's first budget on Wednesday that raised concern about the impact of high taxes, high spending and high borrowing on growth and inflation.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was up 0.24% on the day at $70,112, having gained nearly 10% in October.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Brigid Riley; Editing by Sonali Paul, Jamie Freed, Lincoln Feast, Barbara Lewis and Jane Merriman
Actifs liés
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.
