Dollar eases ahead of US payrolls test
Concern over US growth underpins rate cut expectations
Market focuses on Friday's US jobs report
Options markets preparing for large currency swings
Updates to U.S. afternoon
By Laura Matthews and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar eased against most major currencies on Thursday in choppy trading as investors braced for Friday's U.S. payrolls report, which could shape the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The dollar has come under pressure in recent sessions as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. economy have lifted the chances of the Fed cutting rates with more urgency.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts in a nod to concern over a softening in the labor market.
Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits declined last week as layoffs remained low.
The report helped allay fears that the labor market was deteriorating, after data released in the previous session showed U.S. private jobs growth hitting a 3-1/2-years low in August.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect an increase of 165,000 U.S. jobs in August, up from a rise of 114,000 in July.
"There's this looming sense that a downturn in the economy is coming, but these latest numbers don't show that," Adam Button, chief currency analyst, at Forexlive in Toronto, said.
"I think the market is flip-flopping between 25 and 50 basis points on every data point," Button said.
Markets are pricing in a 59% chance of a 25 basis points cut when the Fed meets on Sept. 17 and 18, with a 41% probability of a 50 bps cut, the CME FedWatch tool showed. In all, some 100 bps of cuts are priced for the year. FEDWATCH
The euro was 0.2% higher against the dollar at $1.1106, a one-week high. The Dollar Index =USD, which measures the U.S. currency's strength against six major peers, was 0.2% lower at 101.08.
Against the Japanese yen JPY=, the dollar fell 0.3% to 143.35 yen, a one-month low. Safe haven demand and expectations for imminent rate hikes from the Bank of Japan have helped lift the Japanese currency in recent sessions.
The options market shows traders are preparing for potentially big moves in currencies on Friday. Overnight implied options volatility - a measure of demand for protection - is at its highest since the banking crisis of March 2023 for the euro EURONO= and at its highest in a year for the yen JPYONO=.
The pound was 0.2% higher at $1.31715 on Thursday. The Bank of England meets in two weeks to set monetary policy. Right now, the derivatives market shows traders see very little chance of a rate cut this month, but a quarter-point cut is fully priced in for November 0#BOEWATCH.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 reversed earlier losses to trade up 0.1% on the day, drawing support from a still-hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia.
With investors avoiding riskier assets, cryptocurrencies slipped on Thursday. Bitcoin BTC= fell 2.6% to $56,510 and ether ETH= slipped about 2.8% to $2,387.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Laura Matthews in New York; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper, Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Sharon Singleton, Alison Williams and Christina Fincher and Jonathan Oatis
Actifs liés
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.
