Currencies little changed with Fed rate decision in focus
BUDAPEST, Sept 17 (Reuters) - The forint retreated slightly on Tuesday and other central European currencies were also little changed, with a weaker dollar lending some support ahead of the U.S. interest rate decision.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday could provide cues for the central banks in the region,as central European rate setters assess how much more room they have to ease policy as inflation subsides while an economic recovery sputters.
Markets are increasingly expecting an oversized 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed this week,weakening the dollar and boosting risk appetite.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was down 0.1% against the euro at 394.50 in slow morning trade, holding onto gains posted in the past four sessions.
"In Monday's session the forint briefly firmed past 394 but closed trading in the 394-395 range and that's where it is trading now," brokerage Equilor said in a note.
The Fed's decision could have implications for the Hungarian National Bank, which holds a policy decision meeting next week, and which paused its rate cuts in August.
Czech National Bank board member Jan Kubicek told Reuters on Monday that he favours another quarter-point rate cut this month given soft economic data, a slightly firmer currency, near-target inflation and lower wage growth.
The Czech central bank slowed the pace of easing to 25 bps in August, from previous 50-bp steps, bringing the main repo rate CZCBIR=ECI down to 4.50%.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= also slipped 0.1% to 4.28 per euro.
"The financial markets are waiting for the outcome of the two-day Fed meeting starting today. Market participants remain divided on the scale of a possible interest rate cut in the U.S., with a move of 50 basis points currently considered more likely," Bank Millennium said in a report.
"The EUR/PLN exchange rate is stabilizing around 4.28, which is what we have become accustomed to in recent weeks."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 0915 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1600 | 25.1580 | -0.01% | -1.82% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.5000 | 393.9500 | -0.14% | -2.87% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2805 | 4.2770 | -0.08% | +1.50% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9737 | 4.9730 | -0.01% | +0.01% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9500 | 117.0500 | +0.09% | +0.25% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1575.28 | 1576.5100 | -0.08% | +11.40% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72908.30 | 72750.50 | +0.22% | +20.27% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2310.96 | 2294.76 | +0.71% | -1.37% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17554.26 | 17532.29 | +0.13% | +14.20% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2480 | 0.0090 | +109bps | +3bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4640 | NULL | +150bps | #VALUE! |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.6740 | -0.0110 | +158bps | +2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6140 | -0.0030 | +246bps | +2bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.0070 | 0.0140 | +304bps | +4bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.2870 | -0.0060 | +320bps | +3bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.82 | 3.43 | 3.09 | 4.32 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.56 | 6.07 | 5.56 | 6.47 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.74 | 5.26 | 4.64 | 5.87 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by the Budapest, Prague and Warsaw bureaus
Editing by Eileen Soreng
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