BOJ to hike rates by year-end, say majority of analysts; no September change seen
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=JPGDPQP GDP poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=JPCPIQP core CPI poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=JPONCQP BOJ overnight call rate poll data
By Satoshi Sugiyama
TOKYO, Sept 13 (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will not raise interest rates at a policy meeting next week, economists unanimously said in a Reuters poll published on Friday, but a majority of them still expect an increase by year-end.
Little changed from a survey last month, with the findings showing analysts' conviction the BOJ is committed to emerge from decades of massive monetary stimulus at a time its global peers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are moving toward rate cuts.
None of the 52 economists in the Sept. 4-12 poll said the BOJ would raise borrowing costs at its Sept. 19-20 meeting. However, 54%, or 28, expect the bank would do so by the end of the year, slightly down from 57% in an August poll.
The median prediction for the rate by end-year was 25 basis points higher at 0.50%, the same as the last poll.
Among a smaller sample of 23 economists who predicted higher rates by year-end and also provided a forecast for a specific month when the BOJ will next change them, more than three-quarters, 18, said December and the rest of the five said October.
The BOJ is expected to proceed cautiously with rate hikes at a pace of about once every six months while assessing the impact of monetary tightening on the domestic economy, said Junki Iwahashi, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.
"However, the difficulty of raising interest rates additionally will increase if financial markets are once again disrupted by a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy or an acceleration in the pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S.," he said.
Of another 15 economists who provided monthly forecasts and anticipated either a rate hike next year or no further increase at all, 60%, or nine, chose January.
The central bank surprised many market participants in July by raising base borrowing costs to 0.25% from a range of 0-0.1%, just four months after abandoning negative rates.
Despite last month's market rout, BOJ officials have repeatedly signalled the central bank would proceed with steady monetary tightening.
Japan's economy grew at a slightly slower pace than initially reported last quarter, government data showed on Monday, hurt by downward revisions in corporate and household spending that point to a bumpier second half of consumption and the central bank's rate-hike plans.
The economy is expected to only recover at a moderate pace, since consumers wary of higher prices are reluctant to spend despite tax cuts and bigger summer bonuses boosting households' disposable income, said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
There was no consensus among economists on which ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election candidates has economic policy with the best chances of stimulating medium-term growth.
Of 21 respondents, Shinjiro Koizumi and Taro Kono were economists' top picks with four votes each. Shigeru Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi and Toshimitsu Motegi tied second place with three votes each.
The current administration's policy will continue in broad terms irrespective of whoever becomes the next LDP leader at least in the short term, said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.
The party leadership race will take place on Sept. 27, and the winner will be appointed prime minister at an extraordinary parliament session early in October.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Polling by Rahul Trivedi and Anant Chandak; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Shri Navaratnam
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.
