Daily Market Comment – Stocks plunge, oil surges as Russian troops enter breakaway regions
- Escalating conflict in Ukraine ravages risk assets as stocks sink, Russian rouble tumbles
- Oil and metal prices soar on supply fears but gold stumbles
- FX markets relatively steady as Fed policy uncertainty holds dollar in tight range
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/perf_Feb22.png)
Global stock markets sank deep into the red on Tuesday, extending Monday’s losses, with US equities likely joining the selloff today when Wall Street traders return from a long holiday weekend. US, UK and European leaders are set to announce fresh sanctions on Russia after Moscow said it will recognize the independence of the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
But the escalation didn’t stop there as President Putin swiftly followed the decision by ordering Russian troops to enter the separatist regions for ‘peacekeeping’. While hopes for a diplomatic solution have not been completely dashed, it’s difficult to see how Russia could step back from the brink of war with Ukraine following the developments of the last 24 hours.
The big question now is whether Moscow will simply settle on tightening its grip on eastern Ukraine or if this was just phase one of a full-scale invasion.
Russian equities lead selloffThe intensifying crisis has sent Russian stocks spinning lower, with the country’s main indices plummeting more than 10% yesterday and trading down by more than 5% on Tuesday. The Russian rouble has also gone into freefall, plunging to a near 16-month low of 80.93 to the dollar.
In the rest of Europe, the major indices opened more than 2% lower but then started to pare some of their losses by mid-morning, signalling a slight easing of the panic.
Stocks in Asia fell across the board too, with worries about a new wave of regulatory crackdown by Chinese authorities on the tech sector additionally weighing on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index.
US stock futures were pointing to a third straight session of losses for Wall Street’s leading indices, with Nasdaq futures down the most (-1.7%).
Oil targets $100 a barrel, gold unable to overcome $1,900 resistanceEnergy was the only stock market sector in the green on Tuesday, which unsurprisingly, came on the back of the surge in oil prices. Fears that a full-scale military conflict could disrupt oil and gas exports from Russia are driving the rally in energy prices.
Brent crude futures are on the verge of hitting the $100 per barrel mark, while WTI futures have surpassed $95 a barrel.
But it wasn’t just energy commodities being boosted from the heightened geopolitical tensions as some metal prices like aluminium and nickel also climbed strongly on concerns about Russian supply.
Gold, however, was struggling to make a clear break above $1,900, pulling back after brushing a nine-month peak of $1,913.89.
US Treasury yields are bouncing back from overnight lows, so that could be weighing on the precious metal. But traders might also be waiting to see how tough Western sanctions against Russia will be before pushing higher.
Commodity dollars edge up as US dollar flatlinesThe gains in commodities markets bolstered the commodity-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars. The aussie was headed for a second day of gains, though the loonie’s boost from the oil rally was very meagre.
The kiwi, meanwhile, was eyeing yesterday’s one-month high of $0.6733 ahead of the RBNZ’s policy decision early on Wednesday.
All three were also up against the Japanese yen, as the safe haven currency retreated from earlier session highs as the tense mood abated somewhat over the course of the day.
The US dollar, however, was mostly flat as the euro and pound also mostly kept within their recent ranges.
The crisis in Ukraine has sparked a scaling back of some of the more aggressive Fed rate hike bets by market participants, undermining the greenback. Senior Fed officials have also cast doubt on the possibility of a double rate hike in March, though Fed Governor Michelle Bowman yesterday hinted that 50 basis points was not off the table.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will be the next to give his views when he speaks later today, while the latest consumer confidence index and the flash Markit PMIs for February out of the US will also be watched.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/calendar_Feb22.png)
Dernières actualités
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.