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Comments & Briefs

XM Research - 4 hours ago

Quick Brief – ISM non-mfg. PMI ticks up, but offers little relief

ISM non-mfg. PMI rises to 51.5 from 51.4 Prices charged and new orders improve, but employment cools This leaves some traders concerned ahead of tomorrow's NFP The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 from 51.4, with the prices paid and new orders subindices rising as well. However, employment cooled further, with the respective index falling to just a tenth above stagnation.
XM Research - 6 hours ago

Quick Brief – US ADP numbers surprise to the downside

ADP employment prints at 99k, missing expectations Odds of 50bps Fed rate cut rise again USDJPY declines considerably The US ADP employment data published today revealed a lower-than-expected rise in private sector jobs; it rose to 99k from a revised 111k previously and is below the forecast of 145k. This reading is the lowest since 2021 and could have major implications for the dollar, the stock market and the Federal Reserve's possible rate decision.
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XM Research - 11 hours ago

Daily Comment – Equities weakness lingers as focus remains on US data

Equities remain on the back foot as key US data on the menu today ADP, jobless claims and ISM Services could prove market moving Dollar’s mixed performance continues, yen benefits OPEC+ production rumours fail to push oil prices higher US data releases in the spotlight Equity markets continue to exhibit a rather unexpected fragility as second tier data like Wednesday’s JOLTs job openings resulted in another negative session in most stock indices around the globe.
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XM Research - 1 day ago

Quick brief – US JOLTs disappoint, Wall Street trembles

US job openings fall to the lowest since April 2021 Bets for a 50bps rate cut increase Wall Street moves between gains and loses   US JOLTs job openings retreated to the lowest in three and a half years of 7.76 million in July compared to the forecast of 8.09 million and June’s negatively revised reading of 7.91 million. The data followed a negative surprise in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with investors further raising the odds for a double rate cut to 45% on concerns the econo
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XM Research - 1 day ago

Daily Comment – Wall Street tumbles amid September blues

Yen and franc gain, aussie the main loser Wall Street tumbles on risk-off September start ISM mfg. PMI rekindles economic concerns Oil collapses on prospect of Libyan accord Risk aversion prevails The US dollar outperformed most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, losing ground only versus the traditional safe havens such as the yen and the franc.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Quick Brief – ISM mfg. PMI increases likelihood of a 50bps Fed rate cut

ISM manufacturing PMI misses forecast Dollar responds indecisively, stocks extend slide Probability of 50bps Fed rate cut in September increase The ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 47.2 from 46.8 but missed expectations of a rise to 47.5. with the details of the report providing a mixed picture. Prices paid rose to 54.0 from 52.9, but the closely watched new orders subindex declined to 44.6 from 47.6, which is the lowest since May 2023. The employment index inched up, but not eno
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar could suffer if the ISM survey disappoints

Markets are preparing for an action-packed week The US dollar is on the front foot following the bank holiday Focus turns to the ISM manufacturing survey today Gold drops, oil recovers but outlook remains mixed Focus on US data releases With US participants returning from the extended bank holiday weekend, the focus today will firmly be on the US data calendar.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Quick Brief – Oil prices slide, but supply concerns put a floor under prices

Oil slides on strong dollar, Chinese demand concerns arise But Libya and Middle East supply disruptions keep a floor beneath prices Oil prices finished last week in the red, tumbling on Friday perhaps due to the dollar’s recovery as well as worries regarding demand from China after OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, citing lower intake expectations from the world’s second-largest economy.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar gains amid adjusted Fed rate cut bets

PCE inflation holds steady, 50bps cut less likely Euro slips as Eurozone inflation drops to lowest in three years Wall Street gains on soft-landing hopes Traders scale back Fed rate cut bets as NFP week begins The US dollar finished last week on a strong footing, gaining against all its major counter parts on Friday, with market participants somewhat scaling back their Fed rate cut bets.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Quick Brief – Core PCE holds steady at 2.6% y/y

Both headline and core PCE price indices hold steady Dollar barely reacts to the release Investors to pay more attention to next week’s NFPs Both the headline and core PCE rates for July held steady at 2.5% and 2.6% y/y, respectively, confounding expectations of minor rebounds to 2.6% and 2.7%. The US dollar barely reacted at the time of the release as the Fed’s favorite inflation metrics corroborate investors’ view that the Fed will proceed with a rate reduction in Septembe
XM Research - 6 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar edges up ahead of PCE inflation as stocks drift

All eyes on US core PCE and consumption as bets for 50-bps cut stall Dollar headed for weekly gains but Nasdaq has disappointing week Euro on the backfoot as soft Eurozone CPI cements September cut Big Tech woes weigh on Wall Street The US dollar looks set to pare its monthly losses as it heads for its first weekly gain since mid-July amid more evidence that the US economy is humming along nicely.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Nvidia earnings fail to buoy markets, focus turns to US data

Nvidia slumps in after-hours trading as earnings don’t excite Equities mixed as attention turns to US data for direction Kiwi outperforms, euro slips on soft German and Spanish CPI figures No post-Nvidia boost for equities Nvidia’s much anticipated earnings results for the second quarter failed to deliver on the very high expectations even as the chip giant saw its revenue more than double from a year ago.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – Nvidia earnings key for reviving stalled rebound and broader risk-on rally  

Nvidia earnings look set to inject some life into subdued markets Another quarter of triple-digit earnings growth is anticipated But will this be enough to revive the AI rally?   Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent 7 to report its Q2 results, but definitely not the least. The chip giant is seen as a bellwether for other AI stocks as its dominant position in the industry means that any changes in demand will be reflected in Nvidia’s revenue.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Markets cautious as Nvidia earnings and key US data loom

Dollar pauses slide as jobs and inflation data awaited Yen pulls back but hawkish BoJ signals keep it elevated Wall Street awaits Nvidia, oil retreats on demand worries Dollar awaits key data for direction The US dollar extended its slump against all its major peers on Tuesday, as in the absence of any top-tier data and shocking headlines, investors continued to digest Powell’s dovish stance at Jackson Hole.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Rate cut euphoria tempered by geopolitics as oil surges

Mood turns cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty in Libya and Gaza Fears of supply disruptions drive up oil prices, S&P 500 closes lower China concerns also weigh but European stocks turn positive as data awaited Geopolitical risks take over as oil rallies Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday and the US dollar consolidated as investors turned cautious ahead of the week’s main events amid renewed fears about disruptions to oil supply.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick brief – WTI oil prints double bottom amid rising geopolitical risks

Geopolitical risks are not going away anytime soon; may keep supporting oil prices WTI crude oil creates bullish trend pattern; confirmation awaited above $78.30.   Israel’s military and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah army exchanged one of their heaviest waves of rockets in ten months across southern Lebanon on Sunday, helping crude oil prices to stage another bull race on Monday.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – Gloomy German Ifo survey weighs on euro as dollar rebounds

Germany’s ifo Institute warns economy is “falling into crisis” Jump in US durable goods orders aid dollar’s recovery   Worries are mounting about Europe’s largest economy after the President of the ifo Institute, Clemens Fuest, warned that Germany is “increasingly falling into crisis” in the latest monthly survey report. The ifo business climate index in August fell to the lowest since February, although the reading of 86.6 was slightly above forecasts of 86.0. Speakin
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Powell signals it’s time to cut; dollar sinks but risk rally muted

Powell says the time has come for rate cuts, pushing yields and dollar lower But cautious rally in stocks as Nvidia earnings, inflation data awaited Oil jumps amid fresh escalation between Israel and Hezbollah Powell green lights rate cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell locked in a September rate cut on Friday, using his Jackson Hole address to signal the Fed’s long-awaited pivot toward an easing cycle.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Markets position ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Dollar rebounds despite jobless claims increase Traders position for Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Yen rebounds as BoJ’s Ueda appears willing to continue hiking rates Wall Street slips as tech shares weigh, gold pulls back Fed cut bets readjusted ahead of Powell’s speech The US dollar rebounded against all but one of its major peers on Thursday, with the only exception being the British pound.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Dovish Fed and labor data weigh on dollar

Fed minutes reveal some members wanted a July cut Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by the most since 2009 PMIs in focus ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Wall Street gains ground, oil extends slide Dollar slips as traders ramp up Fed cut bets The dollar extended its slide against its major counterparts on Wednesday, as the minutes of the July 30-31 Fed gathering revealed that officials are strongly leaning towards a September rate cut, with some members being willing
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