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GOLD


Análisis XM

Technical Analysis – Is gold ready to sail to an all-time high?

Gold moves sideways; faces resistance near 2,473 Technical signals are positive for a continuation to 2,500 ahead of CPI data Gold repeated its July bounce off the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart to re-examine the 2,473 resistance, which ceased upside pressures earlier this month. The bulls have been unsuccessful so far as the battle against the 2,473 barrier continues for the third consecutive day.
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Market Comment – Markets perk up as soft PPI sets the tone ahead of US CPI

Stocks perk up after soft US producer prices, all eyes now on CPI report Kiwi slumps after RBNZ cuts rates and signals more to come Pound also slips on weaker-than-expected UK inflation data Gold holds near record high as dollar skids, ME tensions mount Mood brightens ahead of US CPI data The rebound in equity markets gained further traction on Tuesday after US producer prices rose less than expected in July, raising hopes that today’s report on consumer prices will also sur
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Market anxiety fades but volatility remains high – Volatility Watch

FX volatility smoothens a little bit as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in commodities still high amid resurgence of geopolitical tensions Stock indices and Bitcoin still volatile while traders unwind bearish bets  Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected NFP report two weeks ago have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths.
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Market Comment – Stocks edge up in calm before the storm

Stocks edge higher as gold benefits from geopolitical risks Pound rallies despite shock claimant count change French political issues return to the foreground RBNZ meeting could lead to significant kiwi underperformance Stocks edge higher as gold climb continues  It was another uneventful session yesterday with most stock indices continuing to recover from last week’s rout.
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Market Comment – Has the recent market angst fizzled out?

Improved market sentiment, Nasdaq 100 records weekly increase Yen holds recent strong gains as euro/dollar trades sideways today Rich data calendar this week, US CPI to dictate Fedspeak Gold and oil rally as Iran is expected to attack Israel Mood improves, yen maintains gains Despite the massively negative market sentiment at the beginning of last week, most stock indices managed to cover their weekly losses with the Nasdaq 100 actually closing in the green on a weekly basis
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Technical Analysis – Gold on track to revisit all-time high

Gold advances after bouncing off 50-day SMA The bulls eye recent record high as next target Oscillators are cautiously tilted to the upside   Gold has been trading back and forth within a range in the past month, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. In the near term though, the precious metal has been on the rise after meeting support at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
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Market Comment – Sentiment improves after drop in US jobless claims

US dollar gains as data ease further recession concerns Aussie benefits the most, also helped by RBA’s Bullock Wall Street rebounds, oil and gold gain as well   Jobless claims drop the most in nearly a year The US dollar ended Thursday mixed against the other major currencies, even though it received a boost from the better-than-expected initial jobless claims for last week.
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Market Comment – BoJ Summary of Opinions reveals hawkish mood

Yen pullback stopped by hawkish BoJ Summary Fed cut bets remain dovish, traders await next week’s data Tech shares drag Wall Street down again Gold rebounds, but remains well off its records Yen remains in the spotlight The yen remained in the spotlight yesterday, with dollar/yen extending its recovery by as much as 2.5% after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida played down the chance of another rate hike soon.
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Gold meets familiar support area near 200-SMA Technical signals reflect persisting caution A close above 2,394 could boost positive momentum   Gold has been squeezed between its 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at 2,385 and the broken support trendline from February 2024 at 2,393, which switched to resistance, over the past couple of hours.
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Market angst pushes volatility higher across the board – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility skyrockets as recession fears resurface Volatility in commodities jumps as geopolitics takes centre stage Stock indices experience much stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, jumped to the highest level of the past month as fears of recession, on the back of last Friday’s weak US labour market report, resulted in the market pricing in an aggressive easing path for most central banks during 2024.
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Market Comment – Markets breathe easier but will it last?

Slightly more positive tone in equity markets today Fear of recession fuels Fed rate cut expectations Light calendar today, focus on data during Asian session RBA remains hawkish, considers rate hike US stock markets set the tone for recovery With the US stock markets recovering slightly yesterday, the overall market sentiment is more positive today.
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Technical Analysis – Gold rally in question

Gold is lower today, but close to recent highs Geopolitics and dollar underperformance support gold Momentum indicators are tentatively bullish Gold is trading lower again today, recording its third consecutive red candle, but remaining a tad below its recent all-time high. It is currently testing the upper boundary of the rectangle that has been defining market action since early April.
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Market Comment – Dollar plummets as US jobs data spread panic

Disappointing US jobs data push dollar off the cliff Yen extends rally as fears over US economy mount Stocks drop, VIX rallies to levels seen more than a year ago NFP report disappoints, rate cut bets surge The US dollar plunged on Friday after the US employment report for July came in weaker than expected, raising fears about the performance of the US economy and prompting market participants to start believing that the Fed may need to cut interest rates by 50bps at the upcoming
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Market Comment – US slowdown fears grip markets ahead of NFP

Tech stocks lead selloff in equities amid recession fears, disappointing earnings Yen extends gains as safe havens rally but dollar mixed Will today’s nonfarm payrolls report calm markets or add to jitters? Carnage returns to equity markets The mid-week bounce on Wall Street didn’t last long as rate-cut optimism turned to gloom following soft economic data out of the US on Thursday.
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Will US nonfarm payrolls steal the show this week? – Preview

US nonfarm payrolls to be released on Friday, 12:30 GMT Analysts estimate softer employment conditions in July    Gold might push for an uptrend resumption if jobs data disappoint   Will July's NFP report be a game-changer? Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will not be the last before September’s FOMC policy meeting, but it will be the first release of the third quarter and the first of the second half of the year.
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Volatility remains elevated across the board – Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile after BoJ hike aids yen's recovery Volatility in commodity sphere jumps amid geopolitical flare ups Global stock indices in turbulent waters but for different reasons   Volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the latest interest rate hike by the BoJ has added more fuel to the yen’s recovery from multi-year lows against major peers.
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Market Comment – BoJ hikes but Fed could make a dovish tilt

BoJ announces rate hike and bond tapering Focus turns to US data and the Fed Australian CPI fails to record a significant downside surprise Gold and oil jump higher due to Middle East developments BoJ hikes rates and announces bond tapering The Bank of Japan confirmed market expectations and announced a 15bps rate hike earlier today.
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Technical Analysis – Gold fights with 2,420 level within Ichimoku cloud

Gold rebounds off 2,370 support Prices penetrate short-term downtrend line But momentum oscillators look overstretched Gold prices have been in a bullish corrective mode during the week, paring/reversing some of its losses from July 24. The price has now surpassed the short-term downtrend line and the simple moving averages (SMAs), testing the 2,420 level.
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Market Comment – Markets in waiting mode ahead of earnings releases and risk events

Key earnings releases and numerous central bank meetings coming up US stocks in waiting mode, dollar recovering across the board Key euro area data today but all eyes are on Wednesday's BoJ meeting Gold, oil and bitcoin move in parallel Stocks are mixed ahead of this week’s key events US stock indices were mixed yesterday as the market is preparing for this week’s big events.
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Weekly Technical Outlook– USDJPY, GBPUSD, Gold

USDJPY rapid fall pauses near key support region as investors wait for BoJ tightening Gold shows signs of recovery ahead of FOMC rate decision and nonfarm payrolls Will the BoE meeting send GBPUSD lower? Focus turns lower to 1.2750 area   BoJ rate decision --> USDJPY Central bank meetings will take center stage this week, with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement on Wednesday drawing the most attention as investors speculate about the possibility of double tightening mea
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