FX hold firm with eyes on Fed
Corrects forint trading range in paragraph 8
PRAGUE, Sept 18 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies held firm on Wednesday, as along with other global markets, they weighed the odds of a super-sized U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the day.
A weaker dollar against the euro, central Europe's reference currency, gave support to the region's currencies, as markets waited to see if the Fed would kick off its easing cycle with a cut of 50 basis points.
What it decides could influence central Europe's policymakers that started their easing cycles over the last year.
The Polish central bank has taken a long pause after initial rate cuts a year ago and Romania's central bank made a slow start.
But the Hungarian and Czech central banks have steadily cut interest rates, although they are slowing the pace now. Both are due to meet on policy next week.
ING said the Fed decision will have more of an impact for Hungary.
"Our economists see a 25-bp rate cut as the baseline, which, if the Fed is dovish, could promise more rate cuts in the future, leaving the forint exposed," ING said in a note.
The forint EURHUF= ticked up less than 0.1% to 394.35 to the euro, caught in the middle of the range of 390-399in which it has hovered since June. The Czech crown EURCZK= added 0.2% to 25.06 per euro, gaining a second straight day as it inches back toward the psychological 25.00 level.
Markets are betting on another 25-bp Czech rate cut after the central bank slowed its pace of easing in August.
Czech central banker Jan Kubicek told Reuters this week he favoured another quarter-point rate cut this month given soft economic data, a slightly firmer currency, near-target inflation and lower wage growth.
"For risk assets, including the crown, the Fed decision will be a source of volatility and so we are counting on greater fluctuations," CSOB said.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= was flat at 4.271 to the euro. Romania's leu EURRON= was also little changed at 4.975 per euro.
Stock markets drifted with Prague .PX and Warsaw .WIG20 indices easing a touch and Budapest .BUX little changed, in line with steadied global equity markets waiting on the Fed.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1131 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0600 | 25.1000 | +0.16% | -1.43% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.3500 | 394.5500 | +0.05% | -2.83% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2710 | 4.2710 | +0.00% | +1.72% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9750 | 4.9740 | -0.02% | -0.01% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0300 | 117.0700 | +0.03% | +0.18% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1569.45 | 1574.2900 | -0.31% | +10.99% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72683.56 | 72685.08 | -0.00% | +19.90% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2335.40 | 2334.86 | +0.02% | -0.32% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17498.88 | 17507.85 | -0.05% | +13.84% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2500 | 0.0090 | +101bps | +0bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.3710 | -0.0330 | +132bps | -5bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.6950 | 0.0130 | +152bps | -1bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6350 | -0.0290 | +239bps | -4bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.9950 | -0.0060 | +294bps | -3bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3250 | 0.0110 | +315bps | -2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.83 | 3.44 | 3.11 | 4.31 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.08 | 6.07 | 5.60 | 6.46 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.76 | 5.30 | 4.68 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; editing by Barbara Lewis
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