US natgas prices edge up 1% on record power demand during heat wave
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
July 16 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday from a 10-week low in the prior session after power demand hit a record high on Monday as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners to escape the hottest day so far this summer.
That increase in gas prices came despite forecasts for less demand this week than previously projected due primarily to the slower than expected return to full power of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas.
Traders also noted that gas prices have been depressed for four of the past five weeks due to rising output and the persistent oversupply of gas still in storage versus normal for this time of year.
Analysts said there was currently about 18% more gas in storage than is normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.0 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.188 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract fell about 7% to close at its lowest level since May 3.
Despite the small price increase, the front-month remained in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row and an eighth time in the past 10 trading days.
In the spot market, high cooling demand during the heat wave boosted next-day power prices in New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL and the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland region EL-PK-PJMW-SNL by over 150% to their highest levels since January.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.2 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. But higher prices in April, May and June prompted some drillers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad.
EQT is the nation's biggest gas producer, and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest after its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least July 31.
That heat will likely force power generators to continue burning lots of gas to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming. Power generators burned a daily record of 54.1 bcfd of gas on July 9, according to LSEG data.
But with less hot weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 105.1 bcfd this week to 103.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.8 bcfd so far in July after Freeport LNG in Texas shut ahead of Hurricane Beryl on July 7, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Week ended July 12 Forecast | Week ended July 5 Actual | Year ago July 12 | Five-year average July 12 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +38 | +65 | +43 | +49 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,237 | 3,199 | 2,959 | 2,744 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 18.0% | 18.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.17 | 2.16 | 2.64 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.44 | 10.07 | 9.58 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.95 | 12.33 | 11.44 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 236 | 238 | 243 | 213 | 205 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 239 | 243 | 244 | 215 | 208 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 102.4 | 102.8 | 102.0 | 95.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.3 | 110.4 | 110.6 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.7 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 8.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 49.5 | 48.4 | 46.5 | 48.0 | 43.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 86.4 | 85.5 | 83.4 | 84.6 | 79.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 106.3 | 105.1 | 103.6 | N/A | 96.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 19 | Week ended Jul 12 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 8 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 45 | 47 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 18 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.12 | 2.17 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.16 | 1.90 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.16 | 2.90 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.54 | 1.61 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.94 | 2.07 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.06 | 2.12 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.60 | 2.10 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.91 | 0.37 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.64 | 0.50 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 153.50 | 39.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 125.50 | 50.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 32.50 | 22.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 41.50 | 30.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 43.75 | 42.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 43.00 | 39.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Ros Russell and Daniel Wallis
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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